Covid-19 outbreak and beyond: The information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting

Sylvia Kaufmann

No 20.03, Working Papers from Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee

Abstract: The number of employees historically filed and registered from January to April 2020 for short-time compensation is used to obtain a nowcast for GDP growth in the first quarter and an outlook until the third quarter 2021. We purge the monthly log level series from the systematic component to extract unexpected changes or shocks to log short-time workers. These monthly shocks are included in a univariate model for quarterly GDP growth to capture timely, current-quarter unexpected changes in growth dynamics. Included shocks explain additionally 24% in GDP growth variation. The model is able to forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval covers a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A recovery to pre-crisis GDP level in 2021 lies only in the upper tail of the 95% highest forecast density interval.

Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwend ... g_papers/wp-2003.pdf Full text (application/pdf)
None

Related works:
Journal Article: COVID-19 outbreak and beyond: the information content of registered short-time workers for GDP now- and forecasting (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:szg:worpap:2003

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee

The price is Free.

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by library ().