Structural Change and the Fertility Transition

Philipp Ager, Benedikt Herz and Markus Brueckner
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Benedikt Herz: European Commission
Markus Brueckner: Australian National University
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Markus Brueckner

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, vol. 102, issue 4, 806-822

Abstract: This paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor, which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.

Date: 2020
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Related works:
Working Paper: Structural Change and the Fertility Transition (2019)
Working Paper: Structural Change and the Fertility Transition (2019)
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