U.S.-European Interest Rate Linkage: A Time Series Analysis for West Germany, Switzerland, and the United States

Gebhard Kirchgässner and Juergen Wolters

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, vol. 69, issue 4, 675-84

Abstract: The authors investigate whether there was an international linkage of interest rates between the United States, West Germany, and Switzerland during the period of flexible exchange rates, 1974-84. Euro-market rates and bond-market rates are considered during the two subperiods of falling and increasing U.S. Dollar/DM exchange rates, 1974 to 1978 and 1979 to 1984. Spectral analysis and Granger causality tests are applied and trivariate autoregressive models are estimated. It is shown that a strong linkage exists during the second period, but during the first subperiod there was no, or only a weakly-pronounced, linkage. Copyright 1987 by MIT Press.

Date: 1987
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