The Impact of jumps and leverage in forecasting the co-volatility of oil and gold futures

Manabu Asai, Rangan Gupta and Michael McAleer

No 2019-12, Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE from Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico

Abstract: The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility in the presence of leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust covariance estimator of Koike (2016), such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach, we can disentangle the estimates of the integrated co-volatility matrix and jump variations from the quadratic covariation matrix. Empirical results for daily crude oil and gold futures show that the co-jumps of the two futures have significant impacts on future co-volatility, but that the impact is negligible in forecasting weekly and monthly horizons.

Keywords: Commodity Markets; Co-volatility; Forecasting; Jump; Leverage Effects; Realized Covariance; Threshold Estimation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C33 C58 Q02 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2019-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures (2019)
Working Paper: The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures (2019)
Working Paper: The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures (2019)
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