The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Florian Huber and Luca Onorante

Department of Economics Working Papers from Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics

Abstract: We propose a large-scale Bayesian VAR model with factor stochastic volatility to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of international uncertainty shocks on the G7 countries. The factor structure enables us to identify an international uncertainty shock by assuming that it is the factor most correlated with forecast errors related to equity markets and permits fast sampling of the model. Our findings suggest that the estimated uncertainty factor is strongly related to global equity price volatility, closely tracking other prominent measures commonly adopted to assess global uncertainty. The dynamic responses of a set of macroeconomic and financial variables show that an international uncertainty shock exerts a powerful effect on all economies and variables under consideration.

Keywords: Factor stochastic volatility; vector autoregressive models; global propagation of shocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C30 E32 E52 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ore
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Working Paper: The macroeconomic effects of international uncertainty shocks (2017)
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