Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison

Rafał Weron and Adam Misiorek

Econometrics from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A utilizes differencing, while Model B uses a recently developed seasonal volatility technique. In both models the stochastic component is described by an ARMA time series. Models are tested on a time series of system-wide loads from the California power market and compared with the official forecast of the California System Operator (CAISO).

Keywords: Electricity; load forecasting; ARMA model; seasonal component (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 L94 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 8 pages
Date: 2005-02-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ene and nep-ets
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8. ”The European Electricity Market EEM-04”, Proceedings Volume, pp. 135-142
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0502004

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