Details about Sumru Altug

Homepage:	https://www.aub.edu.lb/fas/economics/Pages/SumruAltug.aspx
Phone:	+961 1 350000 x4067
Postal address:	PO Box 11-0236 Riad El Solh 1107 2020 Beirut, Lebanon
Workplace:	Department of Economics, American University of Beirut, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Sumru Altug.

Last updated 2023-12-05. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pal14

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Working Papers

2023

1. A Tale of Two Crises: Turkey of the Early Aughts and Today’s Lebanon
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
2. The end game to Lebanon’s woes: IMF reform and political willingness
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)

2021

3. Investment under Stormy Skies: The Case of Russian Firms during 2004-2016
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

2020

4. Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment
   TSE Working Papers, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) View citations (5)
   Also in Post-Print, HAL (2020) View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2020) View citations (5) (2020)
5. Online Appendix to "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"
   Online Appendices, Review of Economic Dynamics View citations (4)
   See also Journal Article Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2020) View citations (5) (2020)

2019

6. Growth Spillovers in the MENA Region
   Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum
7. Modeling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Nowcasting and Forecasting Recessions: A Unified Approach
   Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018)

2018

8. Borrowing Constraints and Savings in Turkey
   Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey, Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2018) View citations (1) (2018)

2015

9. Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2016) View citations (25) (2016)

2014

10. Inflation Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum

2013

11. Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
    Also in Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (2012) View citations (16)
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum (2012) View citations (16)
    Working Papers, Barcelona School of Economics (2012) View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?, Open Economies Review, Springer (2014) View citations (8) (2014)

2012

12. Institutions and Business Cycles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (18)
    Also in Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum (2011) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Institutions and Business Cycles, International Finance, Wiley Blackwell (2012) View citations (18) (2012)

2011

13. Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Cyclical dynamics of industrial production and employment: Markov chain-based estimates and tests, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (2012) View citations (4) (2012)
14. Leading Indicators of Real Activity and Inflation for Turkey, 2001-2010
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (1)
15. Search Frictions, Financial Frictions and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (1)

2010

16. Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (12)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2010) View citations (16)
    Working Papers, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics (2010)

2009

17. Türkiye'de ve Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Is Çevrimleri (Business Cycles in Turkey and in Emerging Market Economies)
    Working Papers, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics
18. What has been the Role of Investment in Turkey's Growth Performance?
    Working Papers, Bogazici University, Department of Economics

2007

19. Political Risk and Irreversible Investment
    Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Political Risk and Irreversible Investment, CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group (2007) View citations (9) (2007)
20. The Sources of Long-term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005, European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press (2008) View citations (37) (2008)

2004

21. Spillover Effects, Bank Lending and Growth
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)

2000

22. Political Risk And Irreversible Investment: Theory And An Application To Quebec
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (4)

1999

23. Estimates of the Returns to Scale for US Manufacturing
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers, Koc University (1997)

1998

24. Asset Returns, Inflation and Real Activity: The Case of Mexico and Turkey
    Working Papers, Koc University View citations (6)

1991

25. Human Capital, Aggregate Shocks and Panel Data Estimation
    University of Chicago - Economics Research Center, Chicago - Economics Research Center
    Also in GSIA Working Papers, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business (1991) View citations (1)
    Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research (1991)
    Working Papers, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research (1991)
    Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (1990)

1987

26. Household choices in equilibrium
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis View citations (7)
    Also in University of Chicago - Population Research Center, Chicago - Population Research Center
    See also Journal Article Household Choices in Equilibrium, Econometrica, Econometric Society (1990) View citations (114) (1990)

1986

27. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis View citations (70)
    See also Journal Article Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence, International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association (1989) View citations (181) (1989)

Undated

28. The role of lender behavior in International project finance
    Discussion Papers, Department of Economics, University of York
    See also Journal Article The Role of Lender behavior in International Project Finance, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2001) (2001)

Journal Articles

2021

1. Growth Spillovers for the MENA Region: Geography, Institutions, or Trade?
   The Developing Economies, 2021, 59, (3), 275-305 View citations (4)
2. Modelling of Economic and Financial Conditions for Real‐Time Prediction of Recessions
   Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2021, 83, (3), 663-685
3. The COVID-19 Shock: A Bayesian Approach
   JRFM, 2021, 14, (10), 1-15 View citations (1)

2020

4. Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment
   Review of Economic Dynamics, 2020, 38, 220-237 View citations (5)
   See also Software Item Code and data files for "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment", Computer Codes (2020) (2020)
   Working Paper Online Appendix to "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment", Online Appendices (2020) View citations (4) (2020)
   Working Paper Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment, TSE Working Papers (2020) View citations (5) (2020)

2018

5. Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey
   Central Bank Review, 2018, 18, (1), 1-11 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Borrowing Constraints and Savings in Turkey, Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers (2018) View citations (1) (2018)

2017

6. Search Frictions, Financial Frictions, and Labor Market Fluctuations in Emerging Markets
   Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2017, 53, (1), 128-149 View citations (4)

2016

7. Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2016, 32, (1), 138-153 View citations (25)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Inflation using Survey Expectations and Target Inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) View citations (2) (2015)

2015

8. REAL BUSINESS CYCLES AFTER THREE DECADES
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (2), 425-445 View citations (1)

2014

9. Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?
   Open Economies Review, 2014, 25, (1), 93-122 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper Do Institutions and Culture Matter for Business Cycles?, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (1) (2013)

2013

10. Identifying leading indicators of real activity and inflation for Turkey, 1988-2010: A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting approach
    OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2013, 2014, (1), 1-37 View citations (5)

2012

11. Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach
    Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2012, 48, (6), 4-38 View citations (11)
12. Cyclical dynamics of industrial production and employment: Markov chain-based estimates and tests
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, 36, (10), 1534-1550 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Cyclical Dynamics of Industrial Production and Employment: Markov Chain-based Estimates and Tests, Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers (2011) View citations (3) (2011)
13. Institutions and Business Cycles
    International Finance, 2012, 15, (3), 347-366 View citations (18)
    See also Working Paper Institutions and Business Cycles, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) View citations (18) (2012)

2009

14. The investment tax credit and irreversible investment
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2009, 31, (4), 509-522 View citations (10)

2008

15. Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005
    European Review of Economic History, 2008, 12, (3), 393-430 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper The Sources of Long-term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005, CEPR Discussion Papers (2007) View citations (9) (2007)

2007

16. Political Risk and Irreversible Investment
    CESifo Economic Studies, 2007, 53, (3), 430-465 View citations (9)
    See also Working Paper Political Risk and Irreversible Investment, Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers (2007) View citations (9) (2007)

2006

17. Bank Lending with Imperfect Competition and Spillover Effects
    The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2006, 6, (1), 1-30

2002

18. Scale effects, time-varying markups, and the cyclical behaviour of primal and dual productivity
    Applied Economics, 2002, 34, (13), 1687-1702 View citations (6)

2001

19. The Impact of Tax Risk and Persistence on Investment Decisions
    Economics Bulletin, 2001, 5, (1), 1-5 View citations (5)
20. The Role of Lender behavior in International Project Finance
    Economics Bulletin, 2001, 28, (2), A0
    Also in Economic Theory, 2002, 19, (3), 571-598 (2002)
    See also Working Paper The role of lender behavior in International project finance, Discussion Papers

1999

21. ARE TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS NONLINEAR?
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1999, 3, (4), 506-533 View citations (19)

1998

22. The Effect of Work Experience on Female Wages and Labour Supply
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1998, 65, (1), 45-85 View citations (116)

1993

23. Time-to-Build, Delivery Lags, and the Equilibrium Pricing of Capital Goods
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1993, 25, (3), 301-19 View citations (10)

1992

24. Is strategic behavior by a dominant trader with inside information always optimal?
    Economics Letters, 1992, 39, (3), 301-304 View citations (1)

1990

25. Household Choices in Equilibrium
    Econometrica, 1990, 58, (3), 543-70 View citations (114)
    See also Working Paper Household choices in equilibrium, Working Papers (1987) View citations (7) (1987)

1989

26. Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence
    International Economic Review, 1989, 30, (4), 889-920 View citations (181)
    See also Working Paper Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence, Working Papers (1986) View citations (70) (1986)

Books

2009

1. Business Cycles:Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy
   World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.

2008

2. Asset Pricing for Dynamic Economies
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (16)
   Also in Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press (2008) View citations (16)

Edited books

2003

1. Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (143)
2. Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
   Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (143)

Chapters

2019

1. The Interaction of Real and Financial Markets in the Global Economy: What Role Does China Play?
   Chapter 20 in HANDBOOK OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS Transformations, Dependence, and Risk Spillovers, 2019, pp 513-550

2009

2. Business Cycles in Emerging Market Economies
   Chapter 6 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 101-108
3. Facts
   Chapter 2 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 7-31
4. Future Areas for Research
   Chapter 8 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 137-138
5. International Business Cycles
   Chapter 4 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 65-91
6. Introduction
   Chapter 1 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 1-5
7. Matching the Model to the Data
   Chapter 7 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 109-135
8. Models of Business Cycles
   Chapter 3 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 33-64
9. New Keynesian Models
   Chapter 5 in Business Cycles Fact, Fallacy and Fantasy, 2009, pp 93-100

Software Items

2020

1. Code and data files for "Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article Ambiguous Business Cycles: A Quantitative Assessment, Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics (2020) View citations (5) (2020)