Türkiye'de ve Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerinde Is Çevrimleri (Business Cycles in Turkey and in Emerging Market Economies)

Sumru Altug

No 15, Working Papers from Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics

Abstract: Is çevrimlerinin tanim ve özelliklerinin arastirilmasi modern makroekonomi kuraminda önemli bir yer tutmaktadir. Bu çalismamizda Türkiye’de ve yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde is çevrimlerinin gerek ampirik gerekse teorik yönden ele alip ilk olarak tarih ve süre araliklarinin belirlenmesi için kullanilan yöntemleri ve Türkiye açisindan uygulamalarini inceleyecegiz. Ikincisi, Türkiye gibi diger yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde yasanan is çevrimlerinin ayirtedici özelliklerini (stylized facts) ve kaynaklarini ele alacagiz. Bu baglamda yükselen piyasa ekonomilerideki iktisadi dalgalanmalari Reel Is Çevrim modelleri çerçevesinde soklar ve aktarim mekanizmalari açisindan inceleyecegiz. Trend büyümedeki meydana gelen soklarin ve özellikle kriz dönemlerinde ortaya çikan faiz soklarinin önemini arastiracagiz. The analysis of business cycles and their characteristics constitutes an important area of research in the modern economics literature. In this study, we will examine business cycles in Turkey and in emerging market economies both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective. First, we will discuss the methods used for determining business cycle turning points and their applications in the context of Turkey. Second, we will consider the stylized facts of business cycles and their determinants for emerging market economies. Specifically, we will analyze the shocks and propagation mechanisms of business cycles in emerging market economies based on Real Business Cycle modeling, and investigate the importance of shocks to trend growth and the role of interest rate shocks, especially during crisis periods.

Keywords: Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri; iktisadi dalgalanmalarin tarih ve süre araliklarinin belirlenmesi; soklarin kaynagi; kalici ve geçici soklar; faiz soklari (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 F32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2009, Revised 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-cwa and nep-mac
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