Details about Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

Workplace:

Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer.

Last updated 2023-10-01. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pfu8

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Working Papers

2020

1. Predicting Recessions Using the Yield Curve: The Role of the Stance of Monetary Policy
   Current Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (4)
2. The Federal Reserve’s Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework: A Roadmap
   FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (6)

2018

3. Intrinsic expectations persistence: evidence from professional and household survey expectations
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (24)
4. Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (2)
5. Should the Fed regularly evaluate its monetary policy framework?: remarks at the Fall 2018 Conference, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Brookings Institution, Washington D.C., September 14, 2018
   Speech, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (1)

2017

6. Japanese and U.S. Inflation Dynamics in the 21st Century
   IMES Discussion Paper Series, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan View citations (1)

2015

7. Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: an exploration of firms' and households' expectation formation
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (5)

2012

8. Real expectations: replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (8)

2011

9. Inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article Inflation Dynamics When Inflation Is Near Zero, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2012) View citations (33) (2012)
10. The role of expectations in U. S. inflation dynamics
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (11)

2009

11. Empirical estimates of changing inflation dynamics
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (20)
12. Inflation persistence
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (21)
    See also Chapter Inflation Persistence, Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2010) View citations (22) (2010)
    Journal Article Inflation Persistence, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (1995) View citations (997) (1995)

2006

13. Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (76)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2005) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking (2006) View citations (74) (2006)

2004

14. Estimating forward looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal instruments approach
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article Estimating forward-looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal-instruments approach, Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2005) View citations (7) (2005)
15. Eyes on the prize: how did the Fed respond to the stock market?
    Public Policy Discussion Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2008) View citations (51) (2008)

2002

16. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2002) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the Euler equation for output, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (2004) View citations (227) (2004)

2001

17. Optimal monetary policy in a model with habit formation and explicit tax distortions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (1)

2000

18. OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY IN A MODEL WITH HABIT FORMATION
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2000, Society for Computational Economics View citations (27)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2000) View citations (29)

1999

19. Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis
    Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics View citations (46)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (1999) View citations (57)

1998

20. An Optimising Model for Monetary Policy Analysis: Can Habit Formation Help?
    RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia View citations (10)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (1998) View citations (20)
21. Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (59)
    See also Journal Article Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2002) View citations (223) (2002)
22. Risky Habits: On Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article Risky Habits: on Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations*, Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell (2006) View citations (25) (2006)

1996

23. Computationally efficient solution and maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear rational expectation models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (6)
    Also in Computing in Economics and Finance 1997, Society for Computational Economics View citations (3)
24. Towards a compact, empirically verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Towards a compact, empirically-verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier (1997) View citations (15) (1997)

1995

25. Modeling long-term nominal interest rates
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (1)
26. The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (42)
    See also Journal Article The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (1997) View citations (307) (1997)

1994

27. Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (1994) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1997) View citations (142) (1997)
28. Optimal monetary policy in a model of overlapping price contracts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston View citations (5)

1993

29. Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1995) View citations (112) (1995)
30. Inflation persistence
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Inflation Persistence, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College (1995) View citations (997) (1995)
31. Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term interest rates
    Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (5)
32. Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates, New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (1995) View citations (3) (1995)

1991

33. Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (5)
    See also Software Item RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?, QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles (1994) (1994)
    Journal Article Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1994) View citations (399) (1994)

1989

34. Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1992) View citations (65) (1992)
35. The stability of Wicksell's monetary policy rule
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)

1988

36. Estimating time-varying parameters in a nonlinear multivariate model: inferring changes in expectation behavior over time
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
37. Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier (1993) View citations (23) (1993)
38. \"Animal Spirits\" in consumer expectations: filtering the information in consumer survey expectations
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

1987

39. Minimum variance pooling of forecasts at different levels of aggregation
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

1986

40. A production smoothing model of aggregate inventory behavior with expectation errors generated by model uncertainty
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
41. Information gathering and expectation formation under model uncertainty
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (1)
42. Model uncertainty, expectation formation and shock persistence
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
43. On the information content of consumer survey expectations
    Special Studies Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    See also Journal Article On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations, The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press (1988) View citations (19) (1988)

1983

44. Average Marginal Tax Rates U.S. Household Interest and Dividend Income 1954-80
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)

Journal Articles

2018

1. Should the Federal Reserve Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework?
   Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2018, 49, (2 (Fall)), 443-517 View citations (3)

2017

2. Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2017, 86, (C), 22-35 View citations (54)

2012

3. Inflation Dynamics When Inflation Is Near Zero
   Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, 83-122 View citations (33)
   Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012, 44, (s1), 83-122 (2012) View citations (9)
   See also Working Paper Inflation dynamics when inflation is near zero, Working Papers (2011) View citations (7) (2011)

2011

4. Inflation expectations and the evolution of U. S. inflation
   Public Policy Brief, 2011 View citations (2)
5. The estimated macroeconomic effects of the Federal Reserve's large-scale Treasury purchase program
   Public Policy Brief, 2011 View citations (24)

2010

6. The role of expectations and output in the inflation process: an empirical assessment
   Public Policy Brief, 2010 View citations (27)

2009

7. A proposal to help distressed homeowners: a government payment-sharing plan
   Public Policy Brief, 2009 View citations (8)

2008

8. Eyes on the prize: How did the fed respond to the stock market?
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008, 55, (4), 796-805 View citations (51)
   See also Working Paper Eyes on the prize: how did the Fed respond to the stock market?, Public Policy Discussion Paper (2004) View citations (22) (2004)
9. Special issue comment on optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, 32, (8), 2536-2542 View citations (2)

2006

10. Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence
    International Journal of Central Banking, 2006, 2, (3) View citations (74)
    See also Working Paper Intrinsic and Inherited Inflation Persistence, MPRA Paper (2006) View citations (76) (2006)
11. Risky Habits: on Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations*
    Review of International Economics, 2006, 14, (4), 722-740 View citations (25)
    See also Working Paper Risky Habits: On Risk Sharing, Habit Formation, and the Interpretation of International Consumption Correlations, NBER Working Papers (1998) View citations (23) (1998)

2005

12. Estimating forward-looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal-instruments approach
    Proceedings, 2005, 87-114 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Estimating forward looking Euler equations with GMM estimators: an optimal instruments approach, Working Papers (2004) View citations (17) (2004)

2004

13. Empirical and policy performance of a forward-looking monetary model, comments
    Proceedings, 2004, (Mar) View citations (1)
14. Estimating the Euler equation for output
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2004, 51, (6), 1133-1153 View citations (227)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the Euler equation for output, Working Paper Series (2002) View citations (2) (2002)
15. Issues in economics: what is the cost of deflation?
    Regional Review, 2004, (Q 4 2003 / Q1 2004), 2-5 View citations (1)

2003

16. Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2003, 85, (1), 94-104 View citations (112)

2002

17. Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models
    American Economic Review, 2002, 92, (4), 1013-1028 View citations (223)
    See also Working Paper Dynamic inconsistencies: counterfactual implications of a class of rational expectations models, Working Papers (1998) View citations (59) (1998)
18. The domestic economic outlook
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2002, (Jun)

2000

19. Conference summary
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2000
20. Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models
    American Economic Review, 2000, 90, (3), 367-390 View citations (946)
21. Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Environment: Conference Summary
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2000, 32, (4), 845-69 View citations (9)
22. Monetary policy in a low-inflation environment: a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Minneapolis, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 18-20, 1999
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 2000 View citations (6)
23. Near-rationality and inflation in two monetary regimes, comments
    Proceedings, 2000 View citations (1)

1999

24. New data on worker flows during business cycles
    New England Economic Review, 1999, (Jul), 49-76 View citations (84)

1998

25. Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1998, (jun) View citations (64)
26. Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles? an overview
    New England Economic Review, 1998, (Nov), 3-24 View citations (11)
    Also in Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1998, 42, (Jun), 1-31 (1998) View citations (14)

1997

27. Central bank independence and inflation targeting: monetary policy paradigms for the next millenium?
    New England Economic Review, 1997, (Jan), 19-36 View citations (27)
28. Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (2), 214-34 View citations (112)
29. Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1997, 79, (4), 573-585 View citations (142)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero, Working Papers (1994) View citations (9) (1994)
30. Shifts in the Beveridge Curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics
    New England Economic Review, 1997, (Sep), 3-19 View citations (62)
31. The (Un)Importance of Forward-Looking Behavior in Price Specifications
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1997, 29, (3), 338-50 View citations (307)
    See also Working Paper The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications, Working Papers (1995) View citations (42) (1995)
32. Towards a compact, empirically-verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1997, 47, (1), 197-230 View citations (15)
    See also Working Paper Towards a compact, empirically verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis, Working Papers (1996) View citations (2) (1996)

1996

33. Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1996, 111, (4), 1183-1209 View citations (108)
34. Teaching economics
    Regional Review, 1996, (Sum), 5
35. Technology and growth: an overview
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1996, 40, (Jun), 1-32 View citations (1)
    Also in New England Economic Review, 1996, (Nov), 3-25 (1996) View citations (8)
36. Technology and growth: conference proceedings
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1996, 40, (Jun) View citations (4)

1995

37. Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 35, (1), 115-157 View citations (112)
    See also Working Paper Estimating the linear-quadratic inventory model: maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1993) View citations (22) (1993)
38. Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1995, 27, (4), 1060-70 View citations (36)
39. Inflation Persistence
    The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1995, 110, (1), 127-159 View citations (997)
    Also in Proceedings, 1993, (Mar) (1993) View citations (2)
    Proceedings, 1993 (1993) View citations (2)
    See also Chapter Inflation Persistence, Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, 3, 423-486 (2010) View citations (22) (2010)
    Working Paper Inflation persistence, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1993) View citations (2) (1993)
    Working Paper Inflation persistence, Working Papers (2009) View citations (21) (2009)
40. Monetary Policy Trade-offs and the Correlation between Nominal Interest Rates and Real Output
    American Economic Review, 1995, 85, (1), 219-39 View citations (298)
41. Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates
    New England Economic Review, 1995, (Sep), 39-52 View citations (3)
    Also in Proceedings, 1993, (Mar) (1993) View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy and the behavior of long-term real interest rates, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1993) View citations (5) (1993)
42. The Phillips curve is alive and well
    New England Economic Review, 1995, (Mar), 41-56 View citations (99)
43. The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation
    New England Economic Review, 1995, (Jan), 3-16 View citations (48)

1994

44. A semi-classical model of price-level adjustment a comment
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1994, 41, (1), 285-294 View citations (1)
45. Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?
    American Economic Review, 1994, 84, (5), 1397-1408 View citations (399)
    See also Software Item RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?, QM&RBC Codes (1994) (1994)
    Working Paper Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1991) View citations (5) (1991)
46. Goals, guidelines and constraints facing monetary policymakers: proceedings of a conference held at North Falmouth, Massachusetts in June 1994
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1994, 38 View citations (1)
47. Goals, guidelines, and constraints facing monetary policymakers: an overview
    New England Economic Review, 1994, (Sep), 3-15 View citations (9)
48. Optimal monetary policy and the sacrifice ratio
    Conference Series ; [Proceedings], 1994, 38, 43-84 View citations (16)

1993

49. Commodity prices, the term structure of interest rates, and exchange rates: useful indicators for monetary policy?
    New England Economic Review, 1993, (Nov), 18-32 View citations (6)
50. Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1993, 17, (4), 531-553 View citations (23)
    See also Working Paper Learning about monetary regime shifts in an overlapping wage contract model, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1988) (1988)
51. What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy?
    New England Economic Review, 1993, (Jan), 32-44 View citations (68)

1992

52. Do consumers behave as the life-cycle/permanent-income theory of consumption predicts?
    New England Economic Review, 1992, (Sep), 3-14 View citations (2)
53. Inferring Changes in Expectation Behavior over Time: An Application of Nonlinear Time-Varying-Parameters Estimation
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1992, 10, (2), 169-77 View citations (3)
54. Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1992, 29, (2), 303-336 View citations (65)
    See also Working Paper Monetary policy rules and the indicator properties of asset prices, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (1989) View citations (2) (1989)

1991

55. A Multivariate Posterior Odds Approach to Assessing Competing Exchange Rate Models
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 73, (1), 113-24 View citations (1)

1990

56. The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?
    Federal Reserve Bulletin, 1990, (Dec), 985-1008 View citations (22)

1988

57. Estimation of time-varying weights on alternative expectations models: An application of non-linear time-varying parameter estimation
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1988, 12, (1), 55-61
58. On the Information Content of Consumer Survey Expectations
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1988, 70, (1), 140-44 View citations (19)
    See also Working Paper On the information content of consumer survey expectations, Special Studies Papers (1986) (1986)

Edited books

2009

1. Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, vol 1
   MIT Press Books, The MIT Press View citations (35)

Chapters

2010

1. Inflation Persistence
   Chapter 09 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, 2010, vol. 3, pp 423-486 View citations (22)
   See also Working Paper Inflation persistence, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2009) View citations (21) (2009)
   Journal Article Inflation Persistence, President and Fellows of Harvard College (1995) View citations (997) (1995)

Software Items

1994

1. RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?
   QM&RBC Codes, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles
   See also Journal Article Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (1994) View citations (399) (1994)
   Working Paper Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (1991) View citations (5) (1991)