Estimating the Euler equation for output

Jeffrey Fuhrer and Glenn Rudebusch

No 2002-12, Working Paper Series from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract: New Keynesian macroeconomic models have generally emphasized that expectations of future output are a key factor in determining current output. The theoretical motivation for such forward-looking behavior relies on a straightforward generalization of the well-known Euler equation for consumption. In this paper, we use maximum likelihood and generalized method of moments (GMM) methods to explore the empirical importance of output expectations. We find little evidence that rational expectations of future output help determine current output, especially after taking into account the small-sample bias in GMM.

Keywords: Consumption (Economics); Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Journal Article: Estimating the Euler equation for output (2004)
Working Paper: Estimating the Euler equation for output (2002)
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