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Details about John Muellbauer

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Homepage:https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/people/profiles/john-muellbauer/
Postal address:1 New Road, Oxford OX1 1NF
Workplace:Department of Economics, Oxford University, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by John Muellbauer.

Last updated 2024-09-03. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pmu109


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Working Papers

2024

  1. Forecasting Macroeconomic Dynamics using a Calibrated Data-Driven Agent-based Model
    Papers, arXiv.org Downloads
  2. Housing and Macroprudential Policy
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads

2023

  1. Why net worth is the wrong concept for explaining consumption: evidence from Italy
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2023) Downloads
    INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford (2023) Downloads
  2. Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (2)

2021

  1. Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states
    INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Downloads
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2021) Downloads

    See also Journal Article Excess Mortality Versus COVID‐19 Death Rates: A Spatial Analysis of Socioeconomic Disparities and Political Allegiance Across U.S. States, Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (2022) Downloads (2022)

2020

  1. Consumption and wealth: new evidence from Italy
    Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2020) Downloads View citations (5) (2020)
  3. Measuring excess mortality: the case of England during the Covid-19 Pandemic
    INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (5)
  4. Transatlantic excess mortality comparisons in the pandemic
    OSF Preprints, Center for Open Science Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford (2020) Downloads View citations (1)

2019

  1. A Tale of Two Cities: is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics
    See also Chapter A Tale of Two Cities: Is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?, Springer Books, Springer (2019) (2019)

2018

  1. Housing, Debt and the Economy: a Tale of Two Countries
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Housing, Debt and the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries, National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research (2018) Downloads View citations (8) (2018)
  2. The Future of Macroeconomics
    INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Downloads

2017

  1. Sifting through the ASHE: Job Polarisation and Earnings Inequality in the UK, 1975-2015
    INET Oxford Working Papers, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Downloads
  2. The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2018) Downloads View citations (45) (2018)

2016

  1. Macroeconomics and Consumption
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (17)
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2016) Downloads View citations (17)
  2. Modelling and Forecasting Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure in the UK
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (45)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2016) Downloads View citations (45)

    See also Journal Article Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK, Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier (2016) Downloads View citations (42) (2016)
  3. The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank Downloads View citations (26)

2015

  1. Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?
    Staff Working Papers, Bank of Canada Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Inflation forecasting models for Uganda: is mobile money relevant?
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (11)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015) Downloads View citations (11)

2013

  1. Conditional Eurobonds and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (2013) Downloads View citations (14) (2013)
  2. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data, Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals (2014) Downloads View citations (17) (2014)
  3. Tobin LIVES: Integrating evolving credit market architecture into flow of funds based macro-models
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank Downloads View citations (24)
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2012) Downloads View citations (16)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2013) Downloads View citations (9)

2012

  1. Exchange Rate Passthrough to Import Prices and Monetary Policy in South Africa
    Working Papers, South African Reserve Bank Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa, Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals (2014) Downloads View citations (29) (2014)
  2. Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (5)
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2011) Downloads View citations (6)

    See also Journal Article Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa, Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (2013) Downloads View citations (26) (2013)
  3. When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (44)
    See also Chapter When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?, RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia (2012) Downloads View citations (38) (2012)

2011

  1. Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Chapter Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room, BIS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements (2012) Downloads View citations (2) (2012)
  2. House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience
    SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE Downloads View citations (205)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) Downloads View citations (190)
    LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2011) Downloads View citations (186)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2011) Downloads View citations (154)

    See also Journal Article House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2011) View citations (203) (2011)
  3. Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales
    SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE Downloads View citations (7)
    Also in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2011) Downloads View citations (7)
  4. Shifting Credit Standards and the Boom and Bust in U.S. House Prices
    SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE Downloads View citations (36)
    Also in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2011) Downloads View citations (19)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2011) Downloads View citations (10)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) Downloads View citations (21)

2010

  1. Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (46)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (2010) Downloads View citations (9)
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2010) Downloads View citations (20)
  2. Does aggregating forecasts by CPI component improve inflation forecast accuracy in South Africa?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads
  3. Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (2)
  4. Household decisions, credit markets and the macroeconomy: implications for the design of central bank models
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements Downloads View citations (26)
  5. Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future
    SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE Downloads View citations (117)
    Also in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2010) Downloads View citations (88)

    See also Journal Article Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2010) Downloads View citations (109) (2010)
  6. Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (20)
    Also in LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library (2010) Downloads View citations (18)
    SERC Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2010) Downloads View citations (19)
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2010) Downloads View citations (20)
  7. New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (2013) Downloads View citations (17) (2013)

2009

  1. Consumption, Land Prices and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (6)
  2. Some Issues in Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2009) Downloads

2008

  1. Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (35)
    See also Journal Article Housing, credit and consumer expenditure, Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2007) Downloads View citations (22) (2007)
  2. Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (3)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2008) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Chapter Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa, Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing (2009) Downloads View citations (1) (2009)
  3. Multi-sector inflation forecasting - quarterly models for South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (3)
  4. New methods for forecasting inflation and its sub-components: application to the USA
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Downloads View citations (6)

2007

  1. Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africas Household Sector from 1975 to 2005
    Working Papers, South African Reserve Bank Downloads View citations (3)
  2. Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption
    ERES, European Real Estate Society (ERES) Downloads View citations (9)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2006) Downloads View citations (41)
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2006) Downloads View citations (42)
  3. Housing and Personal Wealth in a Global Context
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) Downloads View citations (6)
  4. Inflation Dynamics and Trade Openness
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (15)
  5. Inflation dynamics and trade openness: with an application to South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (12)

2006

  1. Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom
    Bank of England working papers, Bank of England Downloads View citations (46)
  2. Estimating the Balance Sheet of the Personal Sector in an Emerging Market Country: South Africa 1975-2003
    WIDER Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) Downloads View citations (5)
  3. Housing Market Dynamics and Regional Migration in Britain
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (19)
  4. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994, Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (2007) Downloads View citations (42) (2007)
  5. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa: 1994-2004
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads
  6. Towards Official Balance Sheet Estimates for South Africa’s Household Sector
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads
  7. WAS THERE A BRITISH HOUSE PRICE BUBBLE? EVIDENCE FROM A REGIONAL PANEL
    ERES, European Real Estate Society (ERES) Downloads View citations (82)
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2006) Downloads View citations (78)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) Downloads View citations (83)

2005

  1. Booms, Busts and Ripples in British Regional Housing Markets
    Macroeconomics, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (1)

2004

  1. A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price
    Development and Comp Systems, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (6)
  2. A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (3)
  3. A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (14)
    Also in Development and Comp Systems, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004) Downloads View citations (12)
  4. Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (14)
    Also in Development and Comp Systems, University Library of Munich, Germany (2004) Downloads View citations (14)

    See also Journal Article CONSTRUCTION OF CPIX DATA FOR FORECASTING AND MODELLING IN SOUTH AFRICA*, South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa (2004) Downloads View citations (14) (2004)
  5. Consumer credit conditions in the UK
    Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003, Money Macro and Finance Research Group Downloads View citations (6)
  6. Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (1999) Downloads View citations (9)
  7. Estimating Equivalence Scales for Tax and Benefits Systems
    Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (13)
  8. Forecasting (and Explaining) US Business Cycles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (3)
  9. Revised Estimates of Personal Sector Wealth for South Africa
    Development and Comp Systems, University Library of Munich, Germany Downloads View citations (2)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2004) Downloads View citations (2)

2002

  1. Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (46)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2002) Downloads View citations (40)

    See also Journal Article Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa, IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan (2002) Downloads View citations (44) (2002)

2001

  1. A STUDY IN STRUCTURAL CHANGE: RELATIVE EARNINGS IN WALES SINCE THE 1970S
    Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2001) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Journal Article A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s, Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals (2002) Downloads View citations (2) (2002)
  2. Credit, the Stock Market and Oil: Forecasting US GDP
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (10)
  3. Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (4)
    Also in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile (2000) Downloads View citations (10)

    See also Chapter Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa, Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile (2002) Downloads View citations (13) (2002)

2000

  1. Earnings, Unemployment, And Housing: Evidence From A Panel Of British Regions
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society (2000) Downloads View citations (8)
    Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford (1999) View citations (2)
  2. Financial liberalisation, consumption and debt in South Africa
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (19)
  3. Inflation and output forecasts for South Africa: monetary transmission implications
    CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford Downloads View citations (14)
  4. Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (39)
    Also in CSAE Working Paper Series, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2000) Downloads View citations (36)

    See also Journal Article Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa, The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank (2000) Downloads View citations (38) (2000)

1999

  1. Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited (1998) View citations (106) (1998)

1998

  1. The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (120)
    See also Journal Article The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society (1998) Downloads View citations (104) (1998)

1997

  1. Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (281)
    Also in Economics Papers, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford (1996) View citations (33)

    See also Journal Article Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market, Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (1997) Downloads View citations (274) (1997)
  2. Income Persistence and Macro-Policy Feedbacks in the United States
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (1)

1994

  1. Explaining regional consumption in the UK
    Working Papers, School of Economics, University College Dublin Downloads View citations (4)
  2. Explaining regional house prices in the UK
    Working Papers, School of Economics, University College Dublin Downloads View citations (24)

1988

  1. Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford (1989) View citations (60) (1989)

1986

  1. Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life-Cycle Consumption Function
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (24)
    See also Journal Article Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function, Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES (1988) Downloads View citations (101) (1988)

1984

  1. Aggregate Production Functions and Productivity Measurement: A New Look
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads View citations (12)
  2. British Manufacturing Productivity 1955-1983: Measurement Problems, Oil Shocks and Thatcher Effects
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Downloads

1971

  1. TESTING THE 'CAGAN-HALL' AND THE 'HEDONIC' HYPOTHESES
    Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics Downloads View citations (1)
    Also in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics (1971) Downloads View citations (1)
  2. THE 'PURE THEORY OF THE NATIONAL OUTPUT DEFLATOR' REVISITED
    Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics Downloads
    Also in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics (1971) Downloads
  3. THE 'PURE THEORY OF THE TRUE COST-OF-LIVING INDEX' REVISITED
    Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics Downloads
  4. THE THEORY OF 'TRUE' INPUT PRICE INDICES
    Economic Research Papers, University of Warwick - Department of Economics Downloads
    Also in The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics (1971) Downloads
  5. The 'Pure Theory of the Cost-of-Living Index' Revisited
    The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS), University of Warwick, Department of Economics Downloads

Journal Articles

2022

  1. Excess Mortality Versus COVID‐19 Death Rates: A Spatial Analysis of Socioeconomic Disparities and Political Allegiance Across U.S. States
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2022, 68, (2), 348-392 Downloads
    See also Working Paper Excess mortality versus COVID-19 death rates: a spatial analysis of socioeconomic disparities and political allegiance across US states, INET Oxford Working Papers (2021) Downloads (2021)

2021

  1. What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues
    Journal of Economic Literature, 2021, 59, (3), 773-864 Downloads View citations (36)

2020

  1. Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020, 36, (3), 510-555 Downloads View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Implications of household-level evidence for policy models: the case of macro-financial linkages, Economics Series Working Papers (2020) Downloads View citations (5) (2020)

2018

  1. Consumption, household portfolios and the housing market in France
    Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 2018, (500-501-502), 157-178 Downloads View citations (26)
  2. Housing, Debt and the Economy: A Tale of Two Countries
    National Institute Economic Review, 2018, 245, (1), R20-R33 Downloads View citations (8)
    Also in National Institute Economic Review, 2018, 245, R20-R33 (2018) Downloads View citations (1)

    See also Working Paper Housing, Debt and the Economy: a Tale of Two Countries, Economics Series Working Papers (2018) Downloads View citations (7) (2018)
  3. The future of macroeconomics: macro theory and models at the Bank of England
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2018, 34, (1-2), 287-328 Downloads View citations (45)
    See also Working Paper The future of macroeconomics: Macro theory and models at the Bank of England, Economics Series Working Papers (2017) Downloads View citations (9) (2017)

2016

  1. How Mortgage Finance Reform Could Affect Housing
    American Economic Review, 2016, 106, (5), 620-24 Downloads View citations (18)
  2. Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK
    Journal of Urban Economics, 2016, 94, (C), 32-53 Downloads View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper Modelling and Forecasting Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure in the UK, Economics Series Working Papers (2016) Downloads View citations (45) (2016)

2015

  1. Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2015, 47, (S1), 51-58 Downloads View citations (7)

2014

  1. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings
    Journal of Development Studies, 2014, 50, (1), 101-143 Downloads View citations (69)
  2. Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data
    Journal of Development Studies, 2014, 50, (1), 165-185 Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2013) Downloads View citations (6) (2013)
  3. Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa
    Journal of Development Studies, 2014, 50, (1), 144-164 Downloads View citations (29)
    See also Working Paper Exchange Rate Passthrough to Import Prices and Monetary Policy in South Africa, Working Papers (2012) Downloads View citations (5) (2012)

2013

  1. Conditional eurobonds and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2013, 29, (3), 610-645 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Conditional Eurobonds and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis, Economics Series Working Papers (2013) Downloads View citations (14) (2013)
  2. New Methods for Forecasting Inflation, Applied to the US
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2013, 75, (5), 637-661 Downloads View citations (17)
    See also Working Paper New methods for forecasting inflation, applied to the US, CEPR Discussion Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (4) (2010)
  3. Wealth, Credit Conditions, and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2013, 59, S161-S196 Downloads View citations (26)
    See also Working Paper Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption: Evidence from South Africa, CEPR Discussion Papers (2012) Downloads View citations (5) (2012)

2012

  1. CREDIT, HOUSING COLLATERAL, AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN, THE U.K., AND THE U.S
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2012, 58, (3), 397-423 Downloads View citations (101)
  2. Improving forecasting in an emerging economy, South Africa: Changing trends, long run restrictions and disaggregation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 28, (2), 456-476 Downloads View citations (21)

2011

  1. House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the US Experience
    Economic Journal, 2011, 121, (552), 533-551 View citations (203)
    See also Working Paper House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience, SERC Discussion Papers (2011) Downloads View citations (205) (2011)

2010

  1. Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2010, 6, (4), 203-217 Downloads View citations (109)
    See also Working Paper Housing Markets and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the Future, SERC Discussion Papers (2010) Downloads View citations (117) (2010)

2009

  1. A STOCHASTIC ESTIMATION FRAMEWORK FOR COMPONENTS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
    South African Journal of Economics, 2009, 77, (2), 282-313 Downloads View citations (3)

2008

  1. Housing markets and the economy: the assessment
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2008, 24, (1), 1-33 Downloads View citations (102)
  2. The Next Collapse: U.S. Price Inflation
    The Economists' Voice, 2008, 5, (6), 4 Downloads

2007

  1. Housing, credit and consumer expenditure
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2007, 267- 334 Downloads View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure, CEPR Discussion Papers (2008) Downloads View citations (35) (2008)
  2. Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 30 - September 1, 2007
    Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, 2007 Downloads
  3. Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994
    Journal of African Economies, 2007, 16, (5), 705-744 Downloads View citations (42)
    See also Working Paper Review of Monetary Policy in South Africa since 1994, CSAE Working Paper Series (2006) Downloads View citations (9) (2006)

2006

  1. ESTIMATES OF HOUSEHOLD SECTOR WEALTH FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1970–2003
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2006, 52, (2), 285-307 Downloads View citations (16)

2005

  1. Monetary Policy, Macro-stability and Growth
    World Economics, 2005, 6, (4), 123-147 Downloads View citations (7)
  2. Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation
    World Economics, 2005, 6, (3), 57-69 Downloads View citations (8)
  3. Property Taxation and the Economy after the Barker Review
    Economic Journal, 2005, 115, (502), C99-C117 View citations (22)

2004

  1. CONSTRUCTION OF CPIX DATA FOR FORECASTING AND MODELLING IN SOUTH AFRICA*
    South African Journal of Economics, 2004, 72, (5), 884-912 Downloads View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper Construction of CPIX Data for Forecasting and Modelling in South Africa, CSAE Working Paper Series (2004) Downloads View citations (14) (2004)

2002

  1. A Study in Structural Change: Relative Earnings in Wales Since the 1970s
    Regional Studies, 2002, 36, (1), 1-11 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper A STUDY IN STRUCTURAL CHANGE: RELATIVE EARNINGS IN WALES SINCE THE 1970S, Economics Series Working Papers (2001) View citations (1) (2001)
  2. Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa
    IMF Staff Papers, 2002, 49, (Special issue), 185-213 Downloads View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper Interest Rate Effects on Output: Evidence from a GDP Forecasting Model for South Africa, CEPR Discussion Papers (2002) Downloads View citations (46) (2002)

2001

  1. Earnings, unemployment, and housing in Britain
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2001, 16, (3), 203-220 Downloads View citations (36)

2000

  1. Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications
    Economic Journal, 2000, 110, (464), F412-29 View citations (34)
  2. Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa
    The World Bank Economic Review, 2000, 14, (3), 509-544 Downloads View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper Personal and Corporate Saving in South Africa, CEPR Discussion Papers (2000) Downloads View citations (39) (2000)

1998

  1. Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1998, 14, (3), 54-80 View citations (106)
    See also Working Paper Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU, CEPR Discussion Papers (1999) Downloads View citations (18) (1999)
  2. The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices
    Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 1998, 45, (4), 420-446 Downloads View citations (104)
    See also Working Paper The Housing Market and Regional Commuting and Migration Choices, CEPR Discussion Papers (1998) Downloads View citations (120) (1998)

1997

  1. Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market
    Economic Journal, 1997, 107, (445), 1701-27 Downloads View citations (274)
    See also Working Paper Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market, CEPR Discussion Papers (1997) Downloads View citations (281) (1997)
  2. The Assessment: Business Cycles
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1997, 13, (3), 1-18 View citations (4)

1996

  1. Income Persistence and Macro-Policy Feedbacks in the U.S
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 58, (4), 703-33 View citations (12)

1994

  1. Anglo-German differences in housing market fluctuations: The role of institutions and macroeconomic policy
    Economic Modelling, 1994, 11, (2), 238-249 Downloads View citations (2)
  2. The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1994, 10, (2), 1-41 View citations (71)

1992

  1. Anglo-German differences in housing market dynamics: The role of institutions and macro economic policy
    European Economic Review, 1992, 36, (2-3), 539-548 Downloads View citations (14)

1991

  1. Productivity and Competitiveness
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1991, 7, (3), 99-117 View citations (14)

1989

  1. Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1989, 51, (2), 97-136 View citations (60)
    See also Working Paper Housing, Wages and UK Labour Markets, CEPR Discussion Papers (1988) Downloads View citations (16) (1988)

1988

  1. Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function
    Annals of Economics and Statistics, 1988, (9), 47-70 Downloads View citations (101)
    See also Working Paper Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life-Cycle Consumption Function, CEPR Discussion Papers (1986) Downloads View citations (24) (1986)

1986

  1. On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries
    Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94, (4), 720-44 Downloads View citations (203)
  2. The Assessment: Productivity and Competitiveness in British Manufacturing
    Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1986, 2, (3), i-xxv View citations (3)

1983

  1. Surprises in the Consumption Function
    Economic Journal, 1983, 93, (369a), 34-50 Downloads View citations (32)

1981

  1. Are employment decisions based on rational expectations?
    Journal of Econometrics, 1981, 16, (1), 156-156 Downloads View citations (1)
  2. Linear Aggregation in Neoclassical Labour Supply
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1981, 48, (1), 21-36 Downloads View citations (10)

1980

  1. An Almost Ideal Demand System
    American Economic Review, 1980, 70, (3), 312-26 Downloads View citations (2262)
  2. Reply to Irvine and McCarthy [Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand]
    Economic Journal, 1980, 90, (363), 912-13 Downloads
  3. The Estimation of the Prais-Houthakker Model of Equivalence Scales
    Econometrica, 1980, 48, (1), 153-76 Downloads View citations (27)
  4. Unemployment, employment and exports in British manufacturing: A non-clearing markets approach
    European Economic Review, 1980, 13, (3), 383-409 Downloads View citations (7)
    See also Chapter Unemployment, Employment and Exports in British Manufacturing: A Non-clearing Markets Approach, NBER Chapters, 1981, 383-409 (1981) View citations (1) (1981)

1979

  1. McClements on equivalence scales for children
    Journal of Public Economics, 1979, 12, (2), 221-231 Downloads View citations (11)
  2. Reply to McClements
    Journal of Public Economics, 1979, 12, (2), 243-243 Downloads View citations (1)

1978

  1. Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing
    Economic Journal, 1978, 88, (352), 788-821 Downloads View citations (71)

1977

  1. Testing the Barten Model of Household Composition Effects and the Cost of Children
    Economic Journal, 1977, 87, (347), 460-87 Downloads View citations (74)

1976

  1. A comment on limited independence between income responses and household composition
    European Economic Review, 1976, 8, (1), 91-95 Downloads
  2. Community Preferences and the Representative Consumer
    Econometrica, 1976, 44, (5), 979-99 Downloads View citations (159)

1975

  1. Aggregation, Income Distribution and Consumer Demand
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1975, 42, (4), 525-543 Downloads View citations (187)
  2. Identification and Consumer Unit Scales
    Econometrica, 1975, 43, (4), 807-09 Downloads View citations (3)
  3. The cost of living and taste and quality change
    Journal of Economic Theory, 1975, 10, (3), 269-283 Downloads View citations (11)

1974

  1. Household Production Theory, Quality, and the "Hedonic Technique."
    American Economic Review, 1974, 64, (6), 977-94 Downloads View citations (59)
  2. Household composition, Engel curves and welfare comparisons between households: A duality approach
    European Economic Review, 1974, 5, (2), 103-122 Downloads View citations (48)
  3. Inequality Measures, Prices and Household Composition
    The Review of Economic Studies, 1974, 41, (4), 493-504 Downloads View citations (18)
  4. Prices and Inequality: The United Kingdom Experience
    Economic Journal, 1974, 84, (333), 32-55 Downloads View citations (39)

Books

1980

  1. Economics and Consumer Behavior
    Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press View citations (1466)

Chapters

2019

  1. A Tale of Two Cities: Is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?
    Springer
    See also Working Paper A Tale of Two Cities: is Overvaluation a Capital Issue?, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2019) (2019)

2012

  1. Credit conditions and the real economy: the elephant in the room
    A chapter in Property markets and financial stability, 2012, vol. 64, pp 95-101 Downloads View citations (2)
    See also Working Paper Credit Conditions and the Real Economy: The Elephant in the Room, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2011) Downloads View citations (17) (2011)
  2. Credit standards and the bubble in US house prices: new econometric evidence
    A chapter in Property markets and financial stability, 2012, vol. 64, pp 83-89 Downloads View citations (5)
  3. When is a Housing Market Overheated Enough to Threaten Stability?
    A chapter in Property Markets and Financial Stability, 2012 Downloads View citations (38)
    See also Working Paper When is a housing market overheated enough to threaten stability?, University of Oxford, Department of Economics (2012) Downloads View citations (44) (2012)

2009

  1. Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa
    Chapter 15 in Monetary Policy Frameworks for Emerging Markets, 2009 Downloads View citations (1)
    See also Working Paper Monetary Policy and Inflation Modeling in a More Open Economy in South Africa, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2008) Downloads View citations (3) (2008)

2002

  1. Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa
    Chapter 15 in Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, 2002, vol. 4, pp 427-476 Downloads View citations (13)
    See also Working Paper Estimating monetary policy rules for South Africa, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford (2001) Downloads View citations (4) (2001)

1981

  1. Unemployment, Employment and Exports in British Manufacturing: A Non-clearing Markets Approach
    A chapter in International Seminar on Macroeconomics 1979, 1981, pp 383-409 View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Unemployment, employment and exports in British manufacturing: A non-clearing markets approach, Elsevier (1980) Downloads View citations (7) (1980)

1978

  1. Distributional Aspects of Price Comparisons
    Palgrave Macmillan
 
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