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A Structural Model of the Inflation Process in South Africa

Janine Aron (), John Muellbauer () and Ben Smit

No 2004-08, CSAE Working Paper Series from Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford

Abstract: We build a 4-equation model of the inflation process in South Africa (which has recently adopted inflation targeting), including the exchange rate, consumer prices, producer price, and import prices. This provides useful information on the speed and extent of exchange rate pass-through, and illuminates the various channels through which monetary policy influences inflation. The model is in the tradition of central bank models of the inflation process, but carefully tests for asymmetries, structural breaks and expectations effects, and applies a range of econometric tests and methods to refute the charge that such models necessarily impose .incredible. restrictions, Sims (1980).

JEL-codes: C22 C32 C51 C52 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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