Details about Ellis W. Tallman

Homepage:	http://www.ellistallman.net/
Phone:	4409354443
Postal address:	1614 Woodstock Lane, Reston, VA 20194-1623

Access statistics for papers by Ellis W. Tallman.

Last updated 2024-06-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pta94

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Working Papers

2018

1. Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2020) View citations (28) (2020)
2. Outside Lending in the New York City Call Loan Market
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany

2016

3. How Did Pre-Fed Banking Panics End?
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (11)
   Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2016) View citations (18)
4. Too-Big-To-Fail Before the Fed
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
   Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2016) View citations (8)
   See also Journal Article Too Big to Fail before the Fed, American Economic Review, American Economic Association (2016) View citations (10) (2016)

2015

5. Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (5)
   See also Journal Article Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures, International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier (2017) View citations (26) (2017)
6. The Federal Reserve System and World War I: Designing Policies without Precedent
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

2014

7. Outside Lending in the NYC Call Loan Market
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
8. The Transmission of the Financial Crisis in 1907: An Empirical Investigation
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (7)
   See also Journal Article The transmission of the financial crisis in 1907: an empirical investigation, Cliometrica, Springer (2018) View citations (6) (2018)

2013

9. Close but not a central bank: The New York Clearing House and issues of clearing house loan certificates
   Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (8)
10. Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: Private and public sources, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2015) View citations (5) (2015)

2012

11. Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks
    CAMA Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2012) View citations (11)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (2012) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article BUSINESS CYCLES AND FINANCIAL CRISES: THE ROLES OF CREDIT SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHOCKS, Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press (2015) View citations (10) (2015)
12. The Panic of 1907
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (7)
13. The reluctant Central Bankers
    Working Papers, Economic History Society

2010

14. Banking and financial crises in United States history: what guidance can history offer policymakers?
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
    Also in MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany (2009) View citations (4)
15. Liquidity creation without a lender of last resort: clearing house loan certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (4)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2007) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Liquidity creation without a central bank: Clearing house loan certificates in the banking panic of 1907, Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier (2012) View citations (20) (2012)

2005

16. INFORMATION IN DATA REVISION PROCESSES: PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT AND REAL-TIME MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2005, Society for Computational Economics

2003

17. New York and the politics of central banks, 1781 to the Federal Reserve Act
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
18. The call loan market in the U.S. financial system prior to the Federal Reserve System
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (4)

2002

19. Forecasting using relative entropy
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article Forecasting Using Relative Entropy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing (2005) View citations (97) (2005)
20. Nominal and real disturbances and money demand in the Chinese hyperinflation
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    See also Journal Article Nominal and Real Disturbances and Money Demand in Chinese Hyperinflation, Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International (2003) View citations (4) (2003)

2001

21. Anticipated Inflation, Real Disturbances and Money Demand: The Case of Chinese Hyperinflation, 1946-49
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics

1999

22. Improving forecasts of the federal funds rate in a policy model
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (6)
23. Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (8)
24. Why didn't the United States establish a central bank until after the panic of 1907?
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (3)

1997

25. Financial Aggregates as Conditioning Information for Australian Output and Inflation
    RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia View citations (8)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1997) View citations (7)
26. The impact of a dealer's failure on OTC derivatives market liquidity during volatile periods
    Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1996) View citations (3)

1996

27. The Information Content of Financial Aggregates in Australia
    RBA Research Discussion Papers, Reserve Bank of Australia View citations (7)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1996) View citations (7)

1995

28. Clearinghouse access and bank runs: comparing New York and Chicago during the Panic of 1907
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

1994

29. Clearinghouse access and bank runs: trust companies in New York and Chicago during the Panic of 1907
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    See also Journal Article Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907, The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press (2000) View citations (34) (2000)

1993

30. Educational achievement and economic growth: evidence from Taiwan
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
31. Liquidity shocks and financial crises during the national banking era
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
32. Money Demand and Relative Prices During Episodes of Hyperinflation
    Working Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (1993)
    See also Journal Article Money demand and the relative price of capital goods in hyperinflations, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1995) View citations (7) (1995)

1992

33. Human Capital Investment and Economic Growth: New Routes in Theory and Address Old Questions
    Working Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics View citations (9)
34. Money demand and relative prices in hyperinflations: evidence from Germany and China
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)

1991

35. Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?, Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International (1993) View citations (68) (1993)
36. Money demand and relative prices in the German hyperinflation
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

1990

37. Human capital and endogenous growth: evidence from Taiwan
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article Human capital and endogenous growth evidence from Taiwan, Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier (1994) View citations (66) (1994)

1989

38. Macroeconomic factors and asset excess returns
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Journal Articles

2020

1. Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2020, 36, (2), 373-398 View citations (28)
   See also Working Paper Combining Survey Long-Run Forecasts and Nowcasts with BVAR Forecasts Using Relative Entropy, Working Papers (Old Series) (2018) View citations (5) (2018)
2. Historical patterns in market behavior: Opportunities and risks
   Review of Financial Economics, 2020, 38, (S1), 143-144 View citations (1)

2019

3. Outside lending in the New York City call loan market: evidence from the Panic of 1907
   Financial History Review, 2019, 26, (1), 43-62 View citations (1)

2018

4. The transmission of the financial crisis in 1907: an empirical investigation
   Cliometrica, 2018, 12, (2), 277-312 View citations (6)
   See also Working Paper The Transmission of the Financial Crisis in 1907: An Empirical Investigation, Working Papers (Old Series) (2014) View citations (7) (2014)

2017

5. Forecasting inflation: Phillips curve effects on services price measures
   International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33, (2), 442-457 View citations (26)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting Inflation: Phillips Curve Effects on Services Price Measures, Working Papers (Old Series) (2015) View citations (5) (2015)

2016

6. Quels enseignements de la panique de 1907 pour l’analyse de la crise de 2008 ?
   Revue d'économie financière, 2016, n° 123, (3), 317-324
7. The Likelihood of 2 Percent Inflation in the Next Three Years
   Economic Commentary, 2016, (November)
8. Too Big to Fail before the Fed
   American Economic Review, 2016, 106, (5), 528-32 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper Too-Big-To-Fail Before the Fed, NBER Working Papers (2016) View citations (10) (2016)

2015

9. BUSINESS CYCLES AND FINANCIAL CRISES: THE ROLES OF CREDIT SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHOCKS
   Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2015, 19, (4), 836-882 View citations (10)
   See also Working Paper Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks, CAMA Working Papers (2012) View citations (7) (2012)
10. Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: Private and public sources
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2015, 17, (C), 22-34 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: private and public sources, Working Papers (Old Series) (2013) View citations (7) (2013)

2012

11. Liquidity creation without a central bank: Clearing house loan certificates in the banking panic of 1907
    Journal of Financial Stability, 2012, 8, (4), 277-291 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper Liquidity creation without a lender of last resort: clearing house loan certificates in the Banking Panic of 1907, Working Papers (Old Series) (2010) View citations (4) (2010)
12. Where would the federal funds rate be, if it could be negative?
    Economic Commentary, 2012, (Oct) View citations (2)

2009

13. Commentary on Trends in the aggregate labor force
    Review, 2009, 91, (Jul), 311-316

2008

14. Errata to "Gold shocks, liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era" [Explor. Econ. Hist. 35 (1998) 381-404]
    Explorations in Economic History, 2008, 45, (1), 100-105

2007

15. A look ahead: housing, energy squeezed in '08
    EconSouth, 2007, 9, (4)

2005

16. Forecasting Using Relative Entropy
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, 37, (3), 383-401 View citations (97)
    See also Working Paper Forecasting using relative entropy, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (2002) View citations (14) (2002)
17. Ill winds can’t blow U.S. economy off course
    EconSouth, 2005, 7, (Q4)
18. Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions
    Economic Review, 2005, 90, (Q 2), 1-23 View citations (6)

2004

19. Monetary explanations of the Great Depression: a selective survey of empirical evidence
    Economic Review, 2004, 89, (Q 3), 1-23 View citations (3)

2003

20. Monetary policy and learning: Some implications for policy and research
    Economic Review, 2003, 88, (Q3), 1-9 View citations (5)
21. Nominal and Real Disturbances and Money Demand in Chinese Hyperinflation
    Economic Inquiry, 2003, 41, (2), 234-249 View citations (4)
    See also Working Paper Nominal and real disturbances and money demand in the Chinese hyperinflation, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (2002) (2002)
22. Permanent income and transitory variation in investment and output
    Journal of Macroeconomics, 2003, 25, (2), 149-168 View citations (6)

2002

23. Fiscal policy: What a difference a recession makes
    EconSouth, 2002, 4, (Q4), 1
24. Outlook mixed for Southeast and nation in 2003
    EconSouth, 2002, 4, (Q4), 2-7

2001

25. Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2001, 19, (3), 324-30 View citations (40)
26. The burden of debt
    EconSouth, 2001, 3, (Q2), 1 View citations (1)

2000

27. Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907
    The Journal of Economic History, 2000, 60, (1), 145-163 View citations (34)
    See also Working Paper Clearinghouse access and bank runs: trust companies in New York and Chicago during the Panic of 1907, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (1994) (1994)
28. Credit crunch or what? Australian banks during the 1986–93 credit cycle
    Economic Review, 2000, 85, (Q3), 13-34 View citations (6)

1999

29. Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality
    Economic Review, 1999, 84, (Q1), 4-18 View citations (129)

1998

30. Data vintages and measuring forecast model performance
    Economic Review, 1998, 83, (Q 4), 4-20 View citations (37)
31. Gold Shocks, Liquidity, and the United States Economy during the National Banking Era
    Explorations in Economic History, 1998, 35, (4), 381-404 View citations (8)

1995

32. Inflation and inflation forecasting: an introduction
    Economic Review, 1995, 80, (Jan), 13-27 View citations (1)
33. Money demand and the relative price of capital goods in hyperinflations
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, (2), 375-404 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper Money Demand and Relative Prices During Episodes of Hyperinflation, Working Papers (1993) (1993)
34. Private sector responses to the Panic of 1907: a comparison of New York and Chicago
    Economic Review, 1995, 80, (Mar), 1-9 View citations (5)

1994

35. Human capital and endogenous growth evidence from Taiwan
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1994, 34, (1), 101-124 View citations (66)
    See also Working Paper Human capital and endogenous growth: evidence from Taiwan, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (1990) View citations (8) (1990)

1993

36. Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?
    Economic Inquiry, 1993, 31, (4), 580-94 View citations (68)
    See also Working Paper Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?, FRB Atlanta Working Paper (1991) View citations (1) (1991)
37. Inflation: how long has this been going on?
    Economic Review, 1993, (Nov), 1-12

1992

38. Human capital investment and economic growth: new routes in theory address old questions
    Economic Review, 1992, (Sep), 1-12 View citations (7)
39. The Bank Panic of 1907: The Role of Trust Companies
    The Journal of Economic History, 1992, 52, (3), 611-630 View citations (54)

1991

40. Investigating U.S. government and trade deficits
    Economic Review, 1991, (May), 1-11 View citations (3)
41. Review essay on The House of Morgan: an American Banking Dynasty and the Rise of Modern Finance(1990) by Ron Chernow
    Economic Review, 1991, (Sep), 28-32

1990

42. Lessons from the panic of 1907
    Economic Review, 1990, (May), 2-13 View citations (26)

1989

43. Financial asset pricing theory: a review of recent developments
    Economic Review, 1989, (Nov), 26-41

1988

44. Some unanswered questions about bank panics
    Economic Review, 1988, (Nov), 2-21 View citations (4)

Books

2018

1. Fighting Financial Crises
   University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press View citations (15)

Chapters

2018

1. Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet: Lessons from the Financial History of the United States
   Chapter 2 in Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, 2018, pp 37-62