Details about Tao Zha

E-mail:
Homepage:	http://www.tzha.net/
Phone:	404-498-8353
Postal address:	Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 1000 Peachtree Street, N.E. Atlanta, GA 30309-4470 or Emory University Economics Department 1602 Fishburne Drive Rich Bldg Room 306 Atlanta, GA 30322-2240
Workplace:	Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, (more information at EDIRC) Department of Economics, Emory University, (more information at EDIRC) Economic Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Tao Zha.

Last updated 2020-05-23. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pzh80

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Working Papers

2021

1. Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
   Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

2020

2. Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
3. Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
   FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)
   See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics
4. Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
   FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (4)
5. Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
6. Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
   Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)
   FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2020)
7. Impacts of COVID-19: Mitigation Efforts versus Herd Immunity
   Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
8. Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2020)
9. Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime
   FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)

2019

10. A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (2)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (2)
    2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (2)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (2)

2018

11. Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (1)

2017

12. The Asymmetric Transmission of China's Monetary Policy
    2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
13. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2018)

2016

14. Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (9)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in China Economic Review (2016)
15. Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (11)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (8)
16. What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
    Also in 2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (12)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2016) View citations (14)

2015

17. Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
18. Land Prices and Unemployment
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (3)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (17)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2013) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2016)
19. Lending Efficiency Shocks
    2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
20. Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2015) View citations (15)
    See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2016)
    Chapter (2015)

2014

21. Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (4)
22. Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
    Also in Working Papers, FEDEA (2013) View citations (22)
    2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010) View citations (7)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (8)
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2013) View citations (20)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2014) View citations (32)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2013) View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in Quantitative Economics (2016)
23. The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)

2013

24. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: An Endogenous Switching Approach to Forward Guidance
    2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics

2012

25. Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (45)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2010) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2012)
26. Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
    2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (17)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2011) View citations (43)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (20)
    See also Journal Article in Econometrica (2013)

2010

27. Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (7)
    Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2009) View citations (17)

2009

28. Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, friction, or monetary policy?
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2009) View citations (11)
29. Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (108)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2009) View citations (105)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Theory (2009)

2008

30. Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2009)
31. Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2010)
32. Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks
    Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics View citations (1)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2008) View citations (4)
    Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2009)
33. Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (49)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011)
34. Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (53)
    See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (2010)

2007

35. Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
    Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) View citations (1)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2007) View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (2007) View citations (1)
36. Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (5)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (11)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in International Journal of Economic Theory (2009)
37. Macroeconomic Volatility and Monetary Policy Regimes
    2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
38. Understanding the New Keynesian model when monetary policy switches regimes
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
    Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (16)

2006

39. Assessing Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy in a Regime-Switching Rational Expectations Model
    2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
40. Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics View citations (45)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2005) View citations (19)
41. Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2008)
42. The Conquest of South American Inflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2006) View citations (63)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (2009)
43. Transparency, expectations, and forecasts
    Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (13)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2006) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2006)

2004

44. Effects of monetary policy regime changes in the Euro Economy
    2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
45. MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (3)
46. Normalization in econometrics
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2007)
47. Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2004) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
48. Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (41)
    See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)

2003

49. Modest policy interventions
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (219)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2002) View citations (20)
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1999) View citations (24)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (8)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2003)

2002

50. Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
    See also Journal Article in Proceedings (2002)
51. Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (24)

2000

52. A Gibbs simulator for restricted VAR models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (3)
53. Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (29)
54. Likelihood-preserving normalization in multiple equation models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2003)

1999

55. Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
    Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1999) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1999) View citations (2)
    Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (1999) View citations (2)

1998

56. Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (55)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1999)
57. Does monetary policy generate recessions?
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (98)
    See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2006)

1997

58. Normalization, probability distribution, and impulse responses
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
59. Trends in velocity and policy expectations
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
    See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1998)

1996

60. Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1998)
61. Identification, vector autoregression, and block recursion
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (2)

1995

62. Bankruptcy law, capital allocation, and aggregate effects: a dynamic heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Annals of Economics and Finance (2001)
63. Error bands for impulse responses
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (23)
    Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1994) View citations (29)
    See also Journal Article in Econometrica (1999)
64. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates
    FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1997)

1992

65. Heterogeneity, Capital Allocation and Bankruptcy Law in an Economy with Incomplete Asset Markets
    Working Papers, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics

Journal Articles

2018

1. The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
   American Economic Review, 2018, 108, (12), 3891-3936 View citations (34)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2016

2. Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation
   China Economic Review, 2016, 41, (C), 46-61 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2016)
3. Land prices and unemployment
   Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 80, (C), 86-105 View citations (20)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
4. Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
   Quantitative Economics, 2016, 7, (2), 637-669 View citations (29)
   See also Working Paper (2014)
5. Striated Metropolis–Hastings sampler for high-dimensional models
   Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 192, (2), 406-420 View citations (3)
6. Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
   NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, (1), 1 - 84 View citations (15)
   See also Working Paper (2015)
   Chapter (2015)

2013

7. Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
   Econometrica, 2013, 81, (3), 1147-1184 View citations (180)
   See also Working Paper (2012)

2012

8. Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics
   Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 171, (2), 167-184 View citations (38)
   See also Working Paper (2012)

2011

9. Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models
   Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (12), 2150-2166 View citations (97)
   See also Working Paper (2008)
10. Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach
    Quantitative Economics, 2011, 2, (2), 251-301 View citations (115)

2010

11. Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment
    American Economic Review, 2010, 100, (1), 608-17 View citations (35)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
12. Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
    Review of Economic Studies, 2010, 77, (2), 665-696 View citations (405)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2009

13. Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2009, 12, (2), 284-303 View citations (47)
    See also Software Item (2009)
    Working Paper (2008)
14. Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model
    International Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 5, (1), 69-84 View citations (24)
    See also Working Paper (2007)
15. Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks
    Economic Journal, 2009, 119, (536), 377-405 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
16. The Conquest of South American Inflation
    Journal of Political Economy, 2009, 117, (2), 211-256 View citations (90)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
17. Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models
    Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 144, (5), 1849-1867 View citations (125)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2008

18. Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 146, (2), 255-274 View citations (147)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2007

19. Comment on An and Schorfheide's Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models
    Econometric Reviews, 2007, 26, (2-4), 205-210
20. Normalization in Econometrics
    Econometric Reviews, 2007, 26, (2-4), 221-252 View citations (54)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2006

21. DOES MONETARY POLICY GENERATE RECESSIONS?
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2006, 10, (2), 231-272 View citations (187)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
22. Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
    American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (4), 1193-1224 View citations (136)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
23. Transparency, expectations and forecasts
    Economic Review, 2006, 91, (Q 1), 1-25 View citations (22)
    See also Working Paper (2006)
24. Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
    American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (1), 54-81 View citations (884)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

25. Monetary policy and learning
    Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 257-261

2003

26. A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, 28, (2), 349-366 View citations (80)
27. Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys
    Economic Review, 2003, 88, (Q2), 17-31 View citations (26)
28. Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2003, 114, (2), 329-347 View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper (2000)
29. Modest policy interventions
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (8), 1673-1700 View citations (226)
    See also Working Paper (2003)

2002

30. Empirical analysis of policy interventions
    Proceedings, 2002, (Mar) View citations (14)
    See also Working Paper (2002)
31. Macroeconomic switching
    Proceedings, 2002, (Mar) View citations (38)
32. Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2002, 17, (2), 107-125 View citations (58)

2001

33. Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model
    Economic Review, 2001, 86, (Q4), 35-58 View citations (21)
    Also in Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 83-112 (2001) View citations (21)
34. Bankruptcy Law, Capital Allocation, and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogenous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets
    Annals of Economics and Finance, 2001, 2, (2), 379-400 View citations (6)
    See also Working Paper (1995)

2000

35. Monetary policy and racial unemployment rates
    Economic Review, 2000, 85, (Q4), 1-16 View citations (5)

1999

36. Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions
    Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 90, (2), 291-316 View citations (107)
37. Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81, (4), 639-651 View citations (127)
    See also Working Paper (1998)
38. Error Bands for Impulse Responses
    Econometrica, 1999, 67, (5), 1113-1156 View citations (483)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
39. Evaluating the effects of monetary policy with economic models
    Economic Review, 1999, 84, (Q4), 4-15

1998

40. A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy
    Economic Review, 1998, 83, (Q 1), 16-29 View citations (14)
41. Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models
    International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 949-68 View citations (502)
    See also Working Paper (1996)
42. Trends in velocity and policy expectations
    Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1998, 49, (1), 265-304 View citations (7)
    See also Working Paper (1997)

1997

43. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates
    Journal of Monetary Economics, 1997, 39, (3), 433-448 View citations (456)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
44. Identifying monetary policy: a primer
    Economic Review, 1997, 82, (Q 2), 26-43 View citations (10)

1996

45. What Does Monetary Policy Do?
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1996, 27, (2), 1-78 View citations (612)

Undated

46. Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
    Review of Economic Dynamics
    See also Working Paper (2020)

Chapters

2015

1. Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
   A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, 2015, pp 1-84 View citations (20)
   See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2016)
   Working Paper (2015)

Software Items

2009

1. Code files for "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy"
   Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics
   See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2009)