Details about Tao Zha
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Short-id: pzh80
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Working Papers
2021
- Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19
Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
2020
- Aggregate and Distributional Impacts of LTV Policy: Evidence from China's Micro Data
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
- Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) 
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics
- Discount Shock, Price-Rent Dynamics, and the Business Cycle
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2014) View citations (4)
- Estimating and Forecasting Disease Scenarios for COVID-19 with an SIR Model
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (4)
- Four Stylized Facts about COVID-19
Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)  FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2020)
- Impacts of COVID-19: Mitigation Efforts versus Herd Immunity
Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- Monetary Stimulus Amidst the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2020)
- Stock-Bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamentals, and Fiscal-Monetary Policy Regime
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020)
2019
- A Theory of Housing Demand Shocks
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (2)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2019) View citations (2) 2019 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2019) View citations (2) Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2019) View citations (2)
2018
- Macroeconomic Effects of China's Financial Policies
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2018) View citations (1)
2017
- The Asymmetric Transmission of China's Monetary Policy
2017 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
- The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2018)
2016
- Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (9)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (3)
See also Journal Article in China Economic Review (2016)
- Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (11)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2016) View citations (8)
- What We Learn from China's Rising Shadow Banking: Exploring the Nexus of Monetary Tightening and Banks' Role in Entrusted Lending
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)
Also in 2016 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2016) View citations (12) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2016) View citations (14)
2015
- Assessing the macroeconomic impact of bank intermediation shocks: a structural approach
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
- Land Prices and Unemployment
2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2013) View citations (3) Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2013) View citations (17) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2013) View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2016)
- Lending Efficiency Shocks
2015 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
- Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2015) View citations (15)
See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2016) Chapter (2015)
2014
- Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (4)
- Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching DSGE Models
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (14)
Also in Working Papers, FEDEA (2013) View citations (22) 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010) View citations (7) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2013) View citations (8) Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2013) View citations (20) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2014) View citations (32) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2013) View citations (9)
See also Journal Article in Quantitative Economics (2016)
- The Dynamic Striated Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for High-Dimensional Models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
2013
- Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: An Endogenous Switching Approach to Forward Guidance
2013 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
2012
- Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (45)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2010) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2012)
- Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
2012 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2011) View citations (17) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2011) View citations (43) NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2011) View citations (20)
See also Journal Article in Econometrica (2013)
2010
- Do credit constraints amplify macroeconomic fluctuations?
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (7)
Also in Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2009) View citations (17)
2009
- Sources of the Great Moderation: shocks, friction, or monetary policy?
Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (9)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2009) View citations (11)
- Understanding Markov-Switching Rational Expectations Models
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (108)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2009) View citations (105)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Theory (2009)
2008
- Asymmetric expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy
Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco View citations (6)
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2009)
- Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2010)
- Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks
Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics View citations (1)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2008) View citations (4) Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (2008) View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Economic Journal (2009)
- Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (49)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011)
- Structural vector autoregressions: theory of identification and algorithms for inference
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (53)
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Studies (2010)
2007
- Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
Kiel Working Papers, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) View citations (1)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2007) View citations (2) Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (2007) View citations (1)
- Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (5)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2006) View citations (11) CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2006) View citations (17)
See also Journal Article in International Journal of Economic Theory (2009)
- Macroeconomic Volatility and Monetary Policy Regimes
2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
- Understanding the New Keynesian model when monetary policy switches regimes
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (16)
2006
- Assessing Changes in U.S. Monetary Policy in a Regime-Switching Rational Expectations Model
2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
- Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, Society for Computational Economics View citations (45)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2005) View citations (19)
- Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (10)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2008)
- The Conquest of South American Inflation
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (10)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2006) View citations (63)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Political Economy (2009)
- Transparency, expectations, and forecasts
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (13)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2006) View citations (12)
See also Journal Article in Economic Review (2006)
2004
- Effects of monetary policy regime changes in the Euro Economy
2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (1)
- MCMC method for Markov mixture simultaneous-equation models: a note
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (3)
- Normalization in econometrics
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (17)
See also Journal Article in Econometric Reviews (2007)
- Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2004) View citations (27)
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
- Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (41)
See also Journal Article in American Economic Review (2006)
2003
- Modest policy interventions
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (219)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (2002) View citations (20) FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1999) View citations (24) NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2002) View citations (8)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (2003)
2002
- Empirical Analysis of Policy Interventions
NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (18)
See also Journal Article in Proceedings (2002)
- Evaluating Wall Street Journal survey forecasters: a multivariate approach
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (24)
2000
- A Gibbs simulator for restricted VAR models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (3)
- Assessing simple policy rules: a view from a complete macro model
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (29)
- Likelihood-preserving normalization in multiple equation models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2003)
1999
- Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors
CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (2)
Also in FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (1999) View citations (3) Working Papers, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory (1999) View citations (2) Working Papers, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan (1999) View citations (2)
1998
- Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (55)
See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1999)
- Does monetary policy generate recessions?
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (98)
See also Journal Article in Macroeconomic Dynamics (2006)
1997
- Normalization, probability distribution, and impulse responses
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (13)
- Trends in velocity and policy expectations
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 
See also Journal Article in Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (1998)
1996
- Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (9)
See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (1998)
- Identification, vector autoregression, and block recursion
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (2)
1995
- Bankruptcy law, capital allocation, and aggregate effects: a dynamic heterogeneous agent model with incomplete markets
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (1)
See also Journal Article in Annals of Economics and Finance (2001)
- Error bands for impulse responses
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (23)
Also in Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University (1994) View citations (29)
See also Journal Article in Econometrica (1999)
- Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates
FRB Atlanta Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta View citations (7)
See also Journal Article in Journal of Monetary Economics (1997)
1992
- Heterogeneity, Capital Allocation and Bankruptcy Law in an Economy with Incomplete Asset Markets
Working Papers, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics
Journal Articles
2018
- The Nexus of Monetary Policy and Shadow Banking in China
American Economic Review, 2018, 108, (12), 3891-3936 View citations (34)
See also Working Paper (2017)
2016
- Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation
China Economic Review, 2016, 41, (C), 46-61 View citations (3)
See also Working Paper (2016)
- Land prices and unemployment
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016, 80, (C), 86-105 View citations (20)
See also Working Paper (2015)
- Perturbation methods for Markov‐switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models
Quantitative Economics, 2016, 7, (2), 637-669 View citations (29)
See also Working Paper (2014)
- Striated Metropolis–Hastings sampler for high-dimensional models
Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 192, (2), 406-420 View citations (3)
- Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2016, 30, (1), 1 - 84 View citations (15)
See also Working Paper (2015) Chapter (2015)
2013
- Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Econometrica, 2013, 81, (3), 1147-1184 View citations (180)
See also Working Paper (2012)
2012
- Confronting model misspecification in macroeconomics
Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 171, (2), 167-184 View citations (38)
See also Working Paper (2012)
2011
- Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (12), 2150-2166 View citations (97)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Sources of macroeconomic fluctuations: A regime‐switching DSGE approach
Quantitative Economics, 2011, 2, (2), 251-301 View citations (115)
2010
- Generalizing the Taylor Principle: Comment
American Economic Review, 2010, 100, (1), 608-17 View citations (35)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference
Review of Economic Studies, 2010, 77, (2), 665-696 View citations (405)
See also Working Paper (2008)
2009
- Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2009, 12, (2), 284-303 View citations (47)
See also Software Item (2009) Working Paper (2008)
- Indeterminacy in a forward‐looking regime switching model
International Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 5, (1), 69-84 View citations (24)
See also Working Paper (2007)
- Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks
Economic Journal, 2009, 119, (536), 377-405 View citations (33)
See also Working Paper (2008)
- The Conquest of South American Inflation
Journal of Political Economy, 2009, 117, (2), 211-256 View citations (90)
See also Working Paper (2006)
- Understanding Markov-switching rational expectations models
Journal of Economic Theory, 2009, 144, (5), 1849-1867 View citations (125)
See also Working Paper (2009)
2008
- Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models
Journal of Econometrics, 2008, 146, (2), 255-274 View citations (147)
See also Working Paper (2006)
2007
- Comment on An and Schorfheide's Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models
Econometric Reviews, 2007, 26, (2-4), 205-210
- Normalization in Econometrics
Econometric Reviews, 2007, 26, (2-4), 221-252 View citations (54)
See also Working Paper (2004)
2006
- DOES MONETARY POLICY GENERATE RECESSIONS?
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2006, 10, (2), 231-272 View citations (187)
See also Working Paper (1998)
- Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (4), 1193-1224 View citations (136)
See also Working Paper (2004)
- Transparency, expectations and forecasts
Economic Review, 2006, 91, (Q 1), 1-25 View citations (22)
See also Working Paper (2006)
- Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?
American Economic Review, 2006, 96, (1), 54-81 View citations (884)
See also Working Paper (2004)
2005
- Monetary policy and learning
Review of Economic Dynamics, 2005, 8, (2), 257-261
2003
- A Gibbs sampler for structural vector autoregressions
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2003, 28, (2), 349-366 View citations (80)
- Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys
Economic Review, 2003, 88, (Q2), 17-31 View citations (26)
- Likelihood preserving normalization in multiple equation models
Journal of Econometrics, 2003, 114, (2), 329-347 View citations (44)
See also Working Paper (2000)
- Modest policy interventions
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, 50, (8), 1673-1700 View citations (226)
See also Working Paper (2003)
2002
- Empirical analysis of policy interventions
Proceedings, 2002, (Mar) View citations (14)
See also Working Paper (2002)
- Macroeconomic switching
Proceedings, 2002, (Mar) View citations (38)
- Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2002, 17, (2), 107-125 View citations (58)
2001
- Assessing simple policy rules: A view from a complete macroeconomic model
Economic Review, 2001, 86, (Q4), 35-58 View citations (21)
Also in Review, 2001, 83, (Jul), 83-112 (2001) View citations (21)
- Bankruptcy Law, Capital Allocation, and Aggregate Effects: A Dynamic Heterogenous Agent Model with Incomplete Markets
Annals of Economics and Finance, 2001, 2, (2), 379-400 View citations (6)
See also Working Paper (1995)
2000
- Monetary policy and racial unemployment rates
Economic Review, 2000, 85, (Q4), 1-16 View citations (5)
1999
- Block recursion and structural vector autoregressions
Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 90, (2), 291-316 View citations (107)
- Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81, (4), 639-651 View citations (127)
See also Working Paper (1998)
- Error Bands for Impulse Responses
Econometrica, 1999, 67, (5), 1113-1156 View citations (483)
See also Working Paper (1995)
- Evaluating the effects of monetary policy with economic models
Economic Review, 1999, 84, (Q4), 4-15
1998
- A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy
Economic Review, 1998, 83, (Q 1), 16-29 View citations (14)
- Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models
International Economic Review, 1998, 39, (4), 949-68 View citations (502)
See also Working Paper (1996)
- Trends in velocity and policy expectations
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1998, 49, (1), 265-304 View citations (7)
See also Working Paper (1997)
1997
- Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates
Journal of Monetary Economics, 1997, 39, (3), 433-448 View citations (456)
See also Working Paper (1995)
- Identifying monetary policy: a primer
Economic Review, 1997, 82, (Q 2), 26-43 View citations (10)
1996
- What Does Monetary Policy Do?
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1996, 27, (2), 1-78 View citations (612)
Undated
- Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Review of Economic Dynamics 
See also Working Paper (2020)
Chapters
2015
- Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy
A chapter in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, 2015, pp 1-84 View citations (20)
See also Journal Article in NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2016) Working Paper (2015)
Software Items
2009
- Code files for "Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts in Monetary Policy"
Computer Codes, Review of Economic Dynamics 
See also Journal Article in Review of Economic Dynamics (2009)
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