The Conquest of South American Inflation

Thomas Sargent, Noah Williams and Tao Zha

No 12606, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We infer determinants of Latin American hyperinflations and stabilizations by using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate a hidden Markov model that potentially assigns roles both to fundamentals in the form of government deficits that are financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals. Our maximum likelihood estimates allow us to interpret observed inflation rates in terms of variations in the deficits, sequences of shocks that trigger temporary episodes of expectations driven hyperinflations, and occasional superficial reforms that cut inflation without reforming deficits. Our estimates also allow us to infer the deficit adjustments that seem to have permanently stabilized inflation processes.

JEL-codes: D83 E31 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-his, nep-lam, nep-mac and nep-mon
Note: EFG ME
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Published as Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.

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Journal Article: The Conquest of South American Inflation (2009)
Working Paper: The conquest of South American inflation (2006)
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