Forecast Techniques: A Comparative Study

Dálcio Roberto dos Reis, Ticiana Braga de Vincenzi and Fabricio Palermo Pupo

RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), 2016, vol. 20, issue 2, 135-153

Abstract: Future technologies may affect a company’s business, and prediction of such technologies is an important step in the planning process, especially regarding cutting-edge technology industries. The objective of this paper is to develop a comparative theoretical study on key techniques aimed at predicting future technologies, evaluated according to six criteria: operation costs; required number of people; required time to obtain results; operation complexity, that is, ease of implementing techniques; analysis type (subjective or objective), wherein quantitative techniques are considered more objective; and reliability of results (consistency and replicability). Thus, this study provides parameters to assist companies in selecting the most suitable prospective techniques, according to their needs. The research methodology is qualitative, and the study scope is a descriptive analysis using bibliographic and documentary research as data collection methods. The conclusion is that it is advantageous to use several methods simultaneously, providing higher efficiency and producing better assessments. Finally, it is hoped that this article launches a debate on the assigned criteria for techniques used to predict future technologies.

Date: 2016
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