From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu and Xinrui Zhou

AEA Papers and Proceedings, 2026, vol. 116, 646-651

Abstract: This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time Automatic Identification System maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.

JEL-codes: E31 F14 F23 L14 L92 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20261119

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