CONDITIONAL FORECASTING FOR THE U.S. DAIRY PRICE COMPLEX WITH A BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL

Cameron Thraen (), Stanley Thompson () and Wolfgang Gohout

No 19706, 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA from American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association)

Abstract: A dynamic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model of the U.S. dairy price complex is estimated based on the Normal-Wishart distribution. The Gibbs sample technique is use with the Normal-Wishart distribution to provide conditional forecasts on the future time-paths of the model variables. The conditional forecasts for key prices are examined. Confidence intervals are calculated for the conditional forecasts.

Keywords: Demand; and; Price; Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11
Date: 2002
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:aaea02:19706

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.19706

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