Groundnut price forecasting in Gondal market of Gujarat: A comparison of arima and ann models

Bhoomi Suthar, R. S. Pundir and Raj Popat

Indian Journal of Agricultural Marketing, 2023, vol. 37, issue 1

Abstract: The study makes an effort to predict groundnut prices at the Gondal market of Gujarat. Data of monthly groundnut prices from 2002 to 2019 were used in the study. Out of all the markets in Gujarat, Gondal market was considered in the study based on the highest triennium average of total arrivals in last three years of study period. The data were split into 80:20 for training and testing purpose. Time series models namely ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology given by Box and Jenkins and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) have been used for forecasting prices of groundnut. The results revealed that ANN model (58-1) out performed ARIMA (3,1,2) model on the basis of lowest RMSE and MAPE. As a result, employing the ANN model to forecast groundnut prices is very helpful not only for farmers but also for developing policies and enhancing groundnut marketing effectiveness. The farmers were advised to make appropriate marketing decisions.

Keywords: Crop; Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:injagm:399877

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.399877

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