Forecasting Quality Grade and Certified Angus Beef Premiums

Jason Franken and Joe Parcell

Journal of Agribusiness, 2017, vol. 35, issue 2

Abstract: We determine the mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error of alternative forecasts of quality grade and Certified Angus Beef® (CAB) premiums, which may be of interest to cow-calf producers, feeders, packers, retailers, and food service providers. A supply and demand model and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model outperform a naïve model accounting for only seasonal effects for all premiums except the strongly seasonal choice-select spread. While there is no significant difference between the supply and demand model and the VAR model in terms of mean squared error, the supply and demand model outperforms the VAR model based on the mean absolute percentage error in predicting the CAB-choice premium.

Keywords: Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:jloagb:302511

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.302511

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