Documentation for the USDA, Economic Research Service Agricultural Resource Management Survey-Based Forecast Models for Farm-Level and Farm Household Income

Carrie Litkowski, Christine Whitt, Tatiana Borisova, Katherine Lim, Jessica Todd and Heather Winter

No 404915, Technical Bulletins from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

Abstract: This report documents the methods used to produce the USDA, Economic Resource Service’s (ERS) forecasts of farm-level average net cash farm income and farm household level median and mean income. These forecasts, released three times per year, provide insights into the financial well-being of farms and the households that operate them. Historical components of the financial indicators are drawn from the annual Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), a representative cross-section of farms in the 48 contiguous States. Forecasts are generated using models that begin with micro-level data from ARMS and incorporate USDA, ERS sector-level net cash farm income forecasts, along with broader, economy-wide forecasts. These models project changes in two income categories: income from farm operations and off-farm household income. Summary statistics are reported in two USDA, ERS data products: the Farm Income and Wealth Statistics and the Farm Household Income and Characteristics. These forecasts support informed decision-making by farm operators, policymakers, and other agricultural stakeholders by highlighting expected income trends across various farm types, sizes, and specializations, and projected changes in farm household financial well-being.

Keywords: Consumer/Household Economics; Financial Economics; Labor and Human Capital; Land Economics/Use; Marketing; Production Economics; Research Research Methods/Statistical Methods; Resource/Energy Economics and Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31
Date: 2026-07
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:uerstb:404915

DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.404915

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