Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach

Gilles Dufrénot () and Benjamin Keddad ()

No 1344, AMSE Working Papers from Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France

Abstract: This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries’ business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers where the business cycles of other countries (China, Japan and the US) play an important role in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate over time and across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5 countries’ individual business cycles.

Keywords: OCA; East Asia; Business Cycle Synchronization; Monetary Union; Markov-Switching. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E32 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2013-09, Revised 2013-09
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Related works:
Journal Article: Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach (2014)
Working Paper: Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach (2014)
Working Paper: Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach (2013)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1344

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