From Weimar to Today: Mapping Populism Across German Parliaments

Paul C. Behler () and Laurenz Guenther ()
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Paul C. Behler: University of Bonn
Laurenz Guenther: Bocconi University, Toulouse School of Economics

No 381, ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series from University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany

Abstract: While the recent rise of populism has led many scholars to study populism in the modern era, its long-run evolution remains underexplored. This paper analyzes German parliamentary speeches to study populism over the long run, covering the Weimar Republic (1918–1933) and the united Federal Republic (1991–today). We employ a tailored and validated machine learning model to measure populism and dissect it into anti-elitism and people-centrism. We find that in both republics, populism is similarly common, similarly distributed across the ideological spectrum, and increases over time. Moreover, in both states, left-wing parties were initially the most populist group but were eventually overtaken by right-wing parties. However, we find a difference in the form of populism: in the Weimar Republic, the increase in populism is driven by a surge in the anti-elitism of right-wing parties, while in the Federal Republic, it is due to a general rise in people-centrism.

Keywords: Populism; Nazi; Weimar; Radical; Democracy; Right-wing; Far-right; Machine learning; BERT; Text analysis; Rhetoric (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C89 N40 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 25 pages
Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-his
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