Is a probabilistic modeling really useful in financial engineering? - A-t-on vraiment besoin d'un mod\`ele probabiliste en ing\'enierie financi\`ere ?

Michel Fliess, C\'edric Join and Fr\'ed\'eric Hatt
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Michel Fliess: LIX
C\'edric Join: CRAN, INRIA Saclay - Ile de France

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Abstract: A new standpoint on financial time series, without the use of any mathematical model and of probabilistic tools, yields not only a rigorous approach of trends and volatility, but also efficient calculations which were already successfully applied in automatic control and in signal processing. It is based on a theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which was published in 1995. The above results are employed for sketching a dynamical portfolio and strategy management, without any global optimization technique. Numerous computer simulations are presented.

Date: 2011-04, Revised 2011-05
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