Coupled criticality analysis of inflation and unemployment

Z. Koohi Lai, A. Namaki, A. Hosseiny, G. R. Jafari and Marcel Ausloos

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: In this paper, we are interested to focus on the critical periods in the economy which are characterized by large fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators. To capture unusual and large fluctuations of inflation and unemployment, we concentrate on the non-Gaussianity of their distributions. To this aim, by using the coupled multifractal approach, we analyze US data for a period of 70 years from 1948 until 2018 and measure the non-Gausianity of the distributions. Then, we investigate how the non-Gaussianity of the variables affects the coupling structure of them. By applying the multifractal method, one can see that the non-Gaussianity depends on the scales. While the non-Gaussianity of unemployment is noticeable only for periods smaller than 1 year and for longer periods tends to Gaussian behavior, the non-Gaussianities of inflation persist for all time scales. Also, it is observed that the coupling structure of these variables tends to a Gaussian behavior after $2$ years.

Date: 2020-03
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2003.12655

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