The Epidemic-Driven Collapse in a System with Limited Economic Resource

I. S. Gandzha, O. V. Kliushnichenko and S. P. Lukyanets

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Abstract: We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic in a basic dynamical model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a formal collective economic resource. The epidemic-resource coupling is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law and resource playing the role of temperature. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre- or post-epidemic states. We demonstrate that such a collapse can partially be mitigated by means of a negative resource or debt.

Date: 2020-06, Revised 2020-08
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