On Bitcoin Price Prediction

Gr\'egory Bournassenko

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability of Bitcoin's price movements, drawing a parallel with traditional financial markets. We examine whether the cryptocurrency market operates under the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or if inefficiencies still allow opportunities for arbitrage. Our methodology combines theoretical reviews, empirical analyses, machine learning approaches, and time series modeling to assess the extent to which Bitcoin's price can be predicted. We find that while, in general, the Bitcoin market tends toward efficiency, specific conditions, including information asymmetries and behavioral anomalies, occasionally create exploitable inefficiencies. However, these opportunities remain difficult to systematically identify and leverage. Our findings have implications for both investors and policymakers, particularly regarding the regulation of cryptocurrency brokers and derivatives markets.

Date: 2025-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fmk, nep-mon and nep-pay
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.18982 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2504.18982

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().