The Effects of Climate and Weather on Economic Output: Evidence from Global Subnational Data

Jinchi Dong, Richard Tol and Jinnan Wang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Estimating the effects of climate on economic output is crucial for formulating climate policy, but current empirical findings remain ambiguous. Using annual panel model and panel long-difference model with global subnational data from nearly all countries, we find robust evidence that weather shocks have a transient effect on output. The impact on economic growth is large and significant in the short-run but statistically insignificant in the long-run, except in the coldest and hottest places.

Date: 2025-05
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