Trade Networks and the Rise of a Global Currency

Tomoo Kikuchi and Lien Pham

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We develop a model of strategic competition between global currencies. Issuers choose their commitment levels for currency internationalization, while users -- interconnected in a trade network -- choose their usage of each currency for trade settlement. Our theoretical findings highlight not only the advantage of the status-quo issuer in maintaining dominance, but also the conditions under which an emerging issuer can attract users, potentially leading to a multi-currency payment system. The network centrality of users plays a key role in shaping both their currency choices and the strategic commitment levels of issuers. Our framework offers testable implications for the share of global currencies for trade settlement by linking the network structure, the strategy of issuers and the currency choice of users.

Date: 2025-05
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