Life Sequence Transformer: Generative Modelling for Counterfactual Simulation

Alberto Cabezas and Carlotta Montorsi

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Social sciences rely on counterfactual analysis using surveys and administrative data, generally depending on strong assumptions or the existence of suitable control groups, to evaluate policy interventions and estimate causal effects. We propose a novel approach that leverages the Transformer architecture to simulate counterfactual life trajectories from large-scale administrative records. Our contributions are: the design of a novel encoding method that transforms longitudinal administrative data to sequences and the proposal of a generative model tailored to life sequences with overlapping events across life domains. We test our method using data from the Istituto Nazionale di Previdenza Sociale (INPS), showing that it enables the realistic and coherent generation of life trajectories. This framework offers a scalable alternative to classical counterfactual identification strategy, such as difference-in-differences and synthetic controls, particularly in contexts where these methods are infeasible or their assumptions unverifiable. We validate the model's utility by comparing generated life trajectories against established findings from causal studies, demonstrating its potential to enrich labour market research and policy evaluation through individual-level simulations.

Date: 2025-06
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.01874 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2506.01874

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().