Does the Expansion of Medicaid Lead to Income Adjustment -- Evidence from SIPP

Mingjian Li

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This study examines whether Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) led to strategic income reductions to qualify for coverage. Using monthly data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (2013 to 2019) and a regression discontinuity design, this paper finds that childless households in expansion states with earnings just above the eligibility threshold reduced their lowest monthly earnings by 39 percentage points of the Federal Poverty Level (roughly 700 dollars for a two-person household) relative to those just below. The effect intensified as the mandate penalty increased and diminished after its repeal. Evidence suggests earnings adjustments along both intensive and extensive margins. The paper reinforces the validity of using the lowest monthly earning to identify Medicaid eligibility and provides the first evidence of a substantial labor supply response to the ACA

Date: 2025-06
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