100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration

Sandy H. S. Herho, Siti N. Kaban and Cahya Nugraha

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta $= -0.9224$, CI: $[-0.9727, -0.8571]$). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio $= 0.9061$, $p = 0.504$). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management.

Date: 2025-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.18738 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2506.18738

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().