Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels

Austin Kennedy

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size.

Date: 2025-08
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Published in "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels." Journal of International Money and Finance, 157: 1033-78, August 2025

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06662

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