Modelling Prepayment and Default under Changing Credit Market Conditions for a Net Present Value Analysis

Quirini Lorenzo, Vannucci Luigi and Quirini Giovanni

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Abstract: A model is developed to assess the profitability of loans or mortgages with a specified repayment schedule. Financial institutions face two competing risks: default and prepayment, both influenced by the stochastic evolution of credit market conditions. This study focuses on the Random Net Present Value (RNPV) as a key performance metric. The analysis evaluates the mean and variance of the RNPV at both the individual loan level and the portfolio level, within a unified framework that accounts for borrower behavior and prevailing credit market dynamics.

Date: 2025-08
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