Predictive Performance of LSTM Networks on Sectoral Stocks in an Emerging Market: A Case Study of the Pakistan Stock Exchange

Ahad Yaqoob and Syed M. Abdullah

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Abstract: The application of deep learning models for stock price forecasting in emerging markets remains underexplored despite their potential to capture complex temporal dependencies. This study develops and evaluates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network model for predicting the closing prices of ten major stocks across diverse sectors of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Utilizing historical OHLCV data and an extensive set of engineered technical indicators, we trained and validated the model on a multi-year dataset. Our results demonstrate strong predictive performance ($R^2 > 0.87$) for stocks in stable, high-liquidity sectors such as power generation, cement, and fertilizers. Conversely, stocks characterized by high volatility, low liquidity, or sensitivity to external shocks (e.g., global oil prices) presented significant forecasting challenges. The study provides a replicable framework for LSTM-based forecasting in data-scarce emerging markets and discusses implications for investors and future research.

Date: 2025-09
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