Denoised IPW-Lasso for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation in Randomized Experiments

Mingqian Guan, Komei Fujita, Naoya Sueishi and Shota Yasui

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: This paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in randomized experiments. We adopt inverse probability weighting (IPW) for identification; however, IPW-transformed outcomes are known to be noisy, even when true propensity scores are used. To address this issue, we introduce a noise reduction procedure and estimate a linear CATE model using Lasso, achieving both accuracy and interpretability. We theoretically show that denoising reduces the prediction error of the Lasso. The method is particularly effective when treatment effects are small relative to the variability of outcomes, which is often the case in empirical applications. Applications to the Get-Out-the-Vote dataset and Criteo Uplift Modeling dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms fully nonparametric machine learning methods in identifying individuals with higher treatment effects. Moreover, our method uncovers informative heterogeneity patterns that are consistent with previous empirical findings.

Date: 2025-10
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