Identifying and Quantifying Financial Bubbles with the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model

Zheng Cao, Xingran Shao, Yuheng Yan and Helyette Geman

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Abstract: We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model, sentiment scores, and a hype index we introduced in previous research on NLP forecasting of stock return volatility. Using these tools, a dual-stream transformer model is trained with market data and machine learning methods, resulting in a time series of confidence scores as a Bubble Score. A distinctive feature of our framework is that it captures phases of extreme overpricing and underpricing within a unified structure. We achieve an average yield of 34.13 percentage annualized return when backtesting U.S. equities during the period 2018 to 2024, while the approach exhibits a remarkable generalization ability across industry sectors. Its conservative bias in predicting bubble periods minimizes false positives, a feature which is especially beneficial for market signaling and decision-making. Overall, this approach utilizes both theoretical and empirical advances for real-time positive and negative bubble identification and measurement with HLPPL signals.

Date: 2025-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-ecm and nep-for
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