Are penalty shootouts better than a coin toss? Evidence from European football

L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o and D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy

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Abstract: Penalty shootouts play an important role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments, especially since the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule in its club competitions. Inspired by this rule change, our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, we find no evidence for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, stronger teams, defined first by Elo ratings, do not perform better than their weaker opponents. Consequently, penalty shootouts are equivalent to a perfect lottery in top European football.

Date: 2025-10, Revised 2025-10
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