Modeling Policy and Resource Dynamics in the Construction Sector of Developing Countries: A System Dynamics Approach Using Sudan as a Case Study

Malik Dongla and Mohamed Khalafalla

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Construction industries in developing countries face systemic challenges such as chronic project delays, cost overruns, and regulatory inefficiencies. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD) modeling framework for analyzing policy and resource dynamics within the construction sector in Sudan, with broader applicability to Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The model incorporates key variables related to workforce, material supply, financing, and policy delays, and is calibrated using genetic algorithms (GAs) based on sectoral data and expert input. Simulation results across four policy scenarios indicate that regulatory reform and workforce training are the most effective levers for improving project performance. Specifically, implementing streamlined regulatory procedures reduced project delays by up to 32%, while investment in human capital decreased cost overruns by 28% over a 10-year simulation horizon. In contrast, scenarios focusing solely on material supply or financial inputs produced limited gains without corresponding policy or labor improvements. Sensitivity analysis further revealed that the system is highly responsive to macroeconomic stability and public investment flows. The study demonstrates that a hybrid SD-GA modeling approach offers a valuable decision-support tool for policymakers seeking to improve infrastructure delivery under uncertainty. Recommendations include phased regulatory reforms, targeted capacity building, and integrating modeling tools into strategic infrastructure planning in LDCs.

Date: 2026-01
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