Journal Impact Factor and Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: An Econometric Analysis Based on 1975-2026

Alex Huang

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: The Journal Impact Factor (IF), as a core indicator of academic evaluation, has not been systematically studied in relation to its historical evolution and global macroeconomic environment. This paper employs a period-based regression analysis using long-term time series data from 1975-2026 to examine the statistical relationship between IF and Federal Reserve monetary policy (using real interest rate as a proxy variable). The study estimates three nested models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS): (1) a baseline linear model, (2) a linear model controlling for time trends, and (3) a log-transformed model. Empirical results show that: (i) in the early period (1975-2000), there is no significant statistical relationship between IF and real interest rate ($p>0.1$); (ii) during the quantitative easing period (2001-2020), they exhibit a significant negative correlation ($\beta=-0.069$, $p

Date: 2026-01
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