Slippage-at-Risk (SaR): A Forward-Looking Liquidity Risk Framework for Perpetual Futures Exchanges

Otar Sepper

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We introduce $\textbf{Slippage-at-Risk (SaR)}$, a quantitative framework for measuring liquidity risk in perpetual futures exchanges. Unlike backward-looking metrics such as Value-at-Risk computed on historical returns or realized deficit distributions, SaR provides a \emph{forward-looking} assessment of liquidation execution risk derived from current order book microstructure. The framework comprises three complementary metrics: $SaR(\alpha)$, the cross-sectional slippage quantile; $ESaR(\alpha)$, the expected slippage in the distributional tail; and $TSaR(\alpha)$, the aggregate dollar-denominated tail slippage. We extend the base framework with a \emph{concentration adjustment} that penalizes fragile liquidity structures where a small number of market makers dominate quote provision. Drawing on recent work by Chitra et al. (2025) on autodeleveraging mechanisms and insurance fund optimization, we establish a direct mapping from SaR metrics to optimal capital requirements. Empirical analysis using Hyperliquid order book data, including the October 10, 2025 liquidation cascade, demonstrates SaR's predictive validity as a leading indicator of systemic stress. We conclude with practical implementation guidance and discuss philosophical implications for risk management in decentralized financial systems.

Date: 2026-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-rmg
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