Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility? Evidence from Kalshi Macro Contracts

Hardhik Mohanty and Bhaskar Krishnamachari

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Abstract: Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p

Date: 2026-04
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