Beyond TVL: An Explainable Risk Scoring Framework for Tokenized Real-World Assets

Rischan Mafrur and Khadijah

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) are often evaluated through headline indicators such as total value locked (TVL) or on-chain asset value. However, a large asset base does not necessarily imply low risk, since tokenized assets may remain illiquid, weakly traded, or highly concentrated among a small number of holders. Using public data from RWA.xyz, this paper develops an empirical and explainable risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets. The framework evaluates three dimensions of risk: liquidity risk $L$, concentration risk $C$, and market-quality risk $M$. These risk dimensions are constructed from observable indicators, including turnover, holder distribution, active-address activity, transfer frequency, and network concentration measured through Herfindahl indices. The analysis shows that several RWA tokens with substantial on-chain value exhibit high empirical risk because they combine limited transfer activity, low turnover, and concentrated ownership structures. In contrast, assets with broader participation and stronger on-chain activity display lower liquidity and concentration risk, even when their headline asset values are smaller. The findings demonstrate that TVL alone can obscure important risks in tokenized asset markets. By providing a transparent and data-driven risk scoring approach, this paper contributes to the empirical assessment of RWA liquidity and offers a practical basis for comparing tokenized assets beyond headline valuation metrics.

Date: 2026-05
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