Reflexivity as Prompt: Does Awareness of Self-Reinforcing Market Dynamics Improve LLMs as Financial Market Forecasters?

Eugene Park

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We study how frontier large language models (LLMs) behave as financial forecasters during boom-bust market cycles when made progressively aware of Soros's theory of reflexivity. Standard AI-assisted forecasting treats the market as an exogenous system. Reflexivity theory holds otherwise: prices shape fundamentals, and every forecaster is a participative agent in the loop it analyzes. We evaluate three frontier models - GPT5, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Gemini 3 Pro - under four accumulating zero-shot conditions across two historically distinct episodes: the dot-com bubble (1996-2001) and the global financial crisis (2004-2009). The primary metric is directional forecasting accuracy; we also report the Sharpe ratio of an implied long/cash strategy to capture the risk-adjusted economic value of the forecasts. All inputs are anonymized and normalized to guard against memorization. We find that conditions incorporating reflexivity awareness improve forecasting accuracy differently across models and context windows, revealing that the same theoretical awareness can produce qualitatively different forecasting behavior across frontier LLMs.

Date: 2026-05
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