Financial Resilience Evaluation: From Conditional Expectations to Dynamic Convex Risk Measures

Matteo Ferrari, Roger J. A. Laeven, Emanuela Rosazza Gianin and Marco Zullino

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Abstract: Financial resilience concerns the rate at which a position recovers, or further deteriorates, in response to adverse conditions. As a first step, Laeven, Ferrari, Rosazza Gianin, and Zullino (arXiv:2505.07502) introduced the resilience rate, defined as the expected instantaneous rate of (favorable) change of a price or risk-assessment process. Since this quantity captures only the conditional mean of future increments, it cannot distinguish between positions having the same expected recovery but different conditional risk profiles. We obtain a richer characterization by evaluating such increments through a genuine, possibly nonlinear, dynamic risk measure. More precisely, for an It\^o process $\pi$ and a normalized, cash-additive dynamic risk measure $\rho$, we define the resilience evaluation by \[\mathcal D_s^\rho\pi_t := L^1\text{-}\lim_{\varepsilon\to0^+} \frac{1}{\varepsilon}\rho_s(\pi_{t+\varepsilon}-\pi_t), \qquad 0\leq s\leq t

Date: 2026-06
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