Pump.fun Graduation Regime Windows: Survival Analysis of 832,941 Token Launches and the Social-Presence Effect

Arati Uday Kamat

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: We present a Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards survival analysis of 832,941 Solana pump.fun token launches with 24-hour graduation outcomes, observed continuously between 2026-05-08 and 2026-06-10. The pooled graduation rate is 0.198% (Wilson 95% CI [0.189%, 0.208%]), a 3.18x decline from the 0.63% rate reported by Marino et al. (2026) for September-October 2025. After excluding a four-day tracker warm-up and the partial last day, the steady-state rate is 0.207% (Wilson 95% CI [0.198%, 0.218%]). We formalise the windowed comparison as the Graduation Regime Windows (GRW) framework, name our 34-day window the RED-PUMP-2026-v1 regime, and release the 860,213-launch dataset under CC-BY-4.0 on Zenodo at concept DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20633486. Social-channel presence exerts a large effect: launches advertising Telegram graduate at 1.485% versus 0.166% without (8.94x lift, log-rank p 31 SOL) graduates at 0.634%, matching the 2025 pooled rate. The cross-regime decline is substantially attributable to a shift toward zero-self-buy tokens rather than a fall in success rate among self-buy launches. Cox concordance is 0.858.

Date: 2026-07
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2607.02823 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:2607.02823

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Bibliographic data for series maintained by arXiv administrators ().