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Attenuated Heterogeneity in Fixed-Effects Causal Forests, and a Cross-Fitted Correction

Harry Aytug

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Abstract: Causal forests that estimate conditional average treatment effects by averaging honest leaf-level effects across trees are widely used in fixed-effects panel settings. We show that this averaging systematically attenuates the estimated heterogeneity: the raw prediction behaves like a + b*tau(x) with slope b

Date: 2026-07
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