Who heeds the call to conserve in an energy emergency? Evidence from smart thermostat data

Dylan Brewer and R. Jim Crozier

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: In 2019, a fire at a natural gas plant and historically low temperatures caused an emergency shortage of natural gas in Michigan. A statewide emergency text alert asked households to turn thermostats down to 65{\deg}F. We analyze the effectiveness of this request using high-frequency smart-thermostat data from Michigan and four neighboring states. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that Michigan households reduced thermostat settings by 1.1 degrees on average. Our results suggest that the use of the wireless emergency alert system was critical in creating an effective emergency response. We examine heterogeneity in responsiveness by whether a household's baseline thermostat setting was above or below the compliance target of 65{\deg}F and by Democratic Party gubernatorial vote share.

Date: 2026-07
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Published in Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 12(6): 1747-1789 (2025)

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