An Optimal Energy Production Problem with Energy Source Switching and Load Following Nuclear Power Plants

Fabio Baschetti, Alessandro Gnoatto and Athena Picarelli

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Abstract: The integration of weather-dependent renewable generation increases the volatility of residual demand and raises the value of dispatchable low-carbon flexibility. This paper studies the optimal operation of a load-following nuclear power plant owned by a producer that must balance stochastic residual demand while accounting for ramping limits and costly changes in operating regimes. Nuclear output can be increased, decreased, or kept constant, and the production decision is formulated as a finite-horizon optimal switching problem. We analyze both a closed-economy benchmark, where excess production cannot be sold and shortages require costly back-up generation, and an open-economy setting, where the producer can trade electricity at prices driven by aggregate market residual demand. The value functions are characterized as viscosity solutions of a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman quasi-variational inequalities, and optimal policies are computed using a monotone semi-Lagrangian scheme. The numerical results show how shortage costs, switching costs, ramping capability, and market access shape optimal nuclear load following. The analysis highlights the economic value of controllable low-carbon capacity in renewable-intensive systems and provides implications for flexibility remuneration, balancing-market design, and interconnection policy.

Date: 2026-08
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