Spectral Design of Random-Duration Switchbacks

Yuchen Hu

Papers from arXiv.org

Abstract: A switchback experiment alternates an entire system between treatment and control over time. It is especially useful when interactions between units can undermine standard unit-level experiments. Switchback experiments are commonly implemented on fixed temporal grids, which impose highly structured restrictions on when treatment can switch. We study a broader class of random-duration switchbacks, in which treatment and control alternate across runs whose durations are drawn from a common distribution. Under finite carryover, we show that the mean squared error of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator has a simple frequency-domain representation governed by how temporal outcome patterns align with design-induced imbalance and contamination patterns. This representation yields a tractable worst-case design criterion that can be computed directly from the duration distribution. Optimizing over even a simple two-rate family produces a run-age-dependent switching rule that reduces the asymptotic worst-case mean squared error by at least 32\% relative to the standard independently randomized fixed-block switchback.

Date: 2026-09
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